- Li Hui;Zhang Ziyao;Yin Heng;
Amid China's rapid economic growth, significant regional imbalances persisted. To address this disparity, it is essential to pursue high-quality development by fostering endogenous drivers within poverty-stricken areas. In late 2011, the Chinese government introduced a new nationwide regional poverty alleviation and development program. This study examines the macroeconomic impacts and micro-level mechanisms of these policies by leveraging manually compiled policy documents and macro and micro data(county economies, enterprises, and land transactions), using a DID approach. The findings reveal that the program significantly boosted economic growth in poor regions without causing negative spillovers to neighboring or paired-assistance areas. Economic growth in the assisted regions was primarily driven by industrialization, encompassing both scale expansion and efficiency gains. A cost-benefit analysis further confirms substantial economic returns and long-term fiscal sustainability. These results provide important policy implications for refining regional poverty policies and advancing balanced development.
2025年05期 v.20 2-23页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 464K] - Jiang Hongze;Liang Pinghan;
In accordance with the directives of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, it is essential to enhance policies for strategic emerging industries like photovoltaic energy and to establish localized mechanisms for developing new quality productive forces. Using a difference-in-differences(DID) approach on a panel data between 2010 and 2020, this study assesses the impact of China's photovoltaic(PV) poverty alleviation policies on county-level economic growth. The results show that the PV poverty alleviation policy leads to increases of 3.2% in GDP and 5.3% in GDP per capita, respectively, in targeted poverty counties. These findings are robust across multiple tests. The positive effects are particularly salient in regions with stronger central government support and higher solar radiation. Further analysis reveals that the beneficial effect of this policy is stronger in counties with higher share of poor villages and households, as well as larger coverage of PV station development. In terms of its impact mechanisms, the policy has provided new income sources, expanded employment opportunities, and enhanced market vitality through improvements in the electricity supply. This study offers theoretical insights for optimizing China's PV industry policy under its rural revitalization strategy, and contributes to building long-term sustainable development mechanisms in rural areas. It also advances our understanding of the poverty-reducing potential of new quality productive forces.
2025年05期 v.20 24-45页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 449K] - Wang Wenju;Qian Xinxin;
This study explores the mechanisms by which China's pilot carbon emissions trading schemes(ETS) facilitate industrial low-carbon transitions. We construct a theoretical model and conduct an empirical analysis using provincial panel data from seven pilot provinces spanning 2006-2021. Applying a multi-period difference-in-differences(DID) approach, we evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of the pilot ETS policies. The findings yield three key insights:(1) The pilot ETS significantly reduces carbon emission intensity and improves low-carbon total factor productivity(TFP), thereby promoting China's industrial low-carbon transition.(2) Mechanism analysis indicates that the ETS primarily operates through cost constraints and industrial structural upgrading, while the effect of technological progress has yet to fully materialize.(3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy's effects are more significant in regions with higher levels of economic development and R&D investment, leading to greater carbon intensity reductions and productivity gains. In addition, regions with higher foreign direct investment(FDI) experience more substantial improvements in low-carbon TFP, possibly reflecting technology spillover effects.
2025年05期 v.20 46-67页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 466K] - Lv Bingyang;Hu Shen;
China's path to modernization, which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development, common prosperity, harmony with nature, and peaceful coexistence, is a multifaceted process that advances progress on multiple fronts. This paper applies two analytical lenses to the study of intergovernmental fiscal relations: multi-level governance, where different levels of government interact, and multi-objective decision-making, where multiple goals are pursued simultaneously. From this perspective, it puts forward three core propositions. First, the evolution of fiscal relations is shaped primarily by the central government's need to balance incentivization, coordination, and control. Second, these relations are constrained by objective factors such as the output elasticity of loacl government actions, cost coefficients, externalities, and uncertainty. Third, the effectiveness of both central and local governments depends on the design of fiscal relations, as well as on their objectives, the output elasticity of actions, and costs. In essence, effective intergovernmental fiscal relations require a balance between centralized leadership and local initiative. Using this framework, the paper examines how changes in China's fiscal system have influenced modernization across different historical periods, offering a theoretical model tailored to China's national context.
2025年05期 v.20 68-92页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 630K] - Ma Yeqing;Wang Guanyu;
As global trade networks deepen and trade patterns evolve, supply chain dynamics have emerged as a critical driver of high-quality development—particularly as reflected in firms' capacity to export higher-quality products. Drawing on new-new trade theory, this study incorporates supply chain behavior—specifically, the use of intermediate goods—into the analytical framework for determining export product quality. Theoretically, it posits that technical regulations on the supply chain influence export quality through two key channels: improvements in the quality of intermediate inputs and changes in their associated costs. Empirically, the study exploits China's imposition of technical barriers to trade(TBT) on intermediate goods imports as a quasi-natural experiment, applying a difference-indifferences approach to firm-level export data from 2000 to 2014. The results show that supply chain technical regulations lead to significant improvements in the quality of exported final products. Mechanistically, the regulations raise the quality of imported intermediates, which in turn drive upgrades in final outputs, while leaving import costs largely unchanged—since compliance expenses are absorbed by foreign exporters rather than passed on to Chinese firms. Further analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in these effects, depending on both the type of regulation and firm characteristics. These variations reflect differences in regulatory intensity and in firms' sensitivity to supply chain changes, adaptability, and capacity to convert input quality into product upgrades. Overall, the findings suggest that strengthening supply-side regulatory standards—when properly designed—represents a strategic lever for improving product quality and enhancing firms' international competitiveness, offering valuable insights for trade policy and global supply chain governance.
2025年05期 v.20 94-114页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 622K] - Chen Dong;Yao Di;Zheng Yulu;
The diffusion of industrial robot technology has coincided with increasing divergence in firms' market shares, potentially leading to enhanced market power and shifts in the distribution of factor income. This paper investigates the impact of industrial robot adoption on firms' labor income share and explores the underlying mechanisms, with particular attention to the rise of superstar firms. The findings suggest that, overall, the use of industrial robots contributes to an increase in labor's income share, reflecting a generally favorable trend for labor's position in primary income distribution. This effect, however, is markedly heterogeneous across different types of firms, regions, and industries. A significant concern is that robot adoption strengthens firms' relative market power within industries, fueling the emergence of superstar firms. These firms jointly influence labor income share through both a competition effect and a demonstration effect: the former is the main cause of declining labor shares, while the latter introduces a new channel through which labor's share is further reduced. Although antitrust policies can help improve labor's income share, they are not well-suited to curbing the market power expansion driven by industrial robot adoption. Thus, the concern over superstar firms' suppression of labor income remains. Amid the intensifying trend of “machines replacing humans”, this paper offers empirical insights into how to address the distributional implications brought about by the rise of superstar firms.
2025年05期 v.20 116-136页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 688K] 下载本期数据