李稻葵;郭美新;郎昆;陆琳;

• 1:清华大学社会科学学院
• 2:清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院
• 3:清华大学经济管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

中国式现代化是改变世界历史进程的重大事件。本文重点研究中国式现代化在哪些方面有可能对世界经济产生格局性变化。为此，本文首先回顾了过去一千年来中国占世界经济比重的演变。在此基础之上，本文通过分析指出，中国式现代化将在三个方面对世界经济格局产生重大影响。第一，2006年起中国经济已经成为世界经济发展的第一增长引擎，到2060年前仍将保持增速优势。第二，由于中国经济市场规模巨大、科技创新能力不断上升、政府协调能力较强，中国经济有望成为新型全球化的引领者。第三，中国式现代化的重大特征是政府与市场同向发力，政府成为市场经济的培育者和调控者，而不是市场经济发展的替代者。因此，中国式现代化将有可能产生一个经济学的新分支，即政府与市场经济学，这将使中国式现代化为经济学发展产生重要贡献。

关键词(KeyWords)： 中国式现代化;新型全球化;政府与市场经济学

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Authors): 李稻葵;郭美新;郎昆;陆琳;

DOI: 10.19602/j.chinaeconomist.2023.03.02

参考文献(References)：

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• (1)具体来说，厉克奥博等（2022）采取新的分析框架进行精准测算发现，引入人口健康水平和受教育质量的提高后，中国的人力资源总量仍将在2040年前持续增长，并将在2040~2050年保持稳定，未来中国经济的平均潜在增速2021~2030年将达到5.9%,2031~2040年为4 .9%,2041~2050年为4.1%。 (2)只看制造业，根据世界银行数据，2019年美国制造业增加值为2.34万亿美元，占当年美国GDP比重仅为10.9%，占全球份额下降至16 .8%。 (3)美国联邦储备系统公布美国财富基尼系数从1992年的0.78上升为2016年的0.86,2019年基本维持在此高位。美国人口普查局2022年9月报告公布2021年美国基尼系数创新高，为0.494，同比增长1.2%。 (4)根据联合国数据，中国在全球贸易中所占份额从1978年不足1%增长至2020年的接近15%，成为全球第一大贸易国，并且自2009年起，开始稳居世界第一大出口国、第二大进口国地位。 (5)根据世界知识产权组织（WIPO)的数据，https://www3.wipo.int/ipstats/searchForm。 1 After a precise estimation using a new analytical framework, Li et al.(2022)determined that China’s total human resources would continue to maintain steady growth through 2040 and then remain steady until 2050, if taking into consideration the increase in the health and educational attainment.They expected the average growth potential of the Chinese economy to be 5.9%between 2021 and 2030, 4.9%between 2031 and 2040, and 4.1%between 2041 and 2050. 2 According to the World Bank, US manufacturing value-add stood at 2.34 trillion US dollars in 2019, accounting for only 10.9%of US GDP, and its proportion in global total manufacturing value-add fell to 16.8%. 3 According to the US Federal Reserve System, the wealth Gini coefficient in the US rose from 0.78 in 1992 to 0.86 in 2016 and remained at this level in 2019. In September 2022, the US Census Bureau reported a record high US income Gini coefficient, which reached 0.494 in 2021, up 1.2%from the previous year. 4 According to the United Nations, China’s share in global trade increased from less than 1%in 1978 to nearly 15%in 2020, making it the largest trading nation in the world. Since 2009, China has been the world’s largest exporter and the second-largest importer. 5 See data from the World Intellectual Property Organization(WIPO), https://www3.wipo.int/ipstats/searchForm.