- 金碚;
<正>30 years of reform and opening-up have released tremendous momentum of development driven by people's desire
2008年03期 1页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 240K] - 张翼;
In the midst of a stock frenzy in China and tight monetary policy carried out by the Chinese government, what knowledge can we glean from a respected state leader, an economist and a people representative?
2008年03期 5-10页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 361K] -
<正>At the age of 73, Mr. Cheng Siwei is no longepresident of the Central Committee of the ChinaNational Democratic Construction Association. This
2008年03期 11-13页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 29K] - 周丽敏;
Mao Yushi is a well known economist, academic, and speaker on Chinese macro-economic issues. His ideas on entrepreneurship, morality, and the law in China’s economic system has garnered him national recognition, while at the same time earning him a reputation as being someone who "speaks his mind". To commemorate the 30th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up to the outside world, our reporter Zhou Limin sat down with Zhou to discuss his thoughts on China’s economic progress, problems, and prospects going forward.
2008年03期 14-19页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 520K] - 吴程涛;段铸;张景宇 ;张曙光;
Pressured by a slowdown in exports, cost increases and dwindling returns to manufacturing investments, China's manufacturing capital has begun to shift to the real-estate and stock markets. As a matter of fact, the stock market had already felt a shock a couple of years ago when top domestic manufacturers like Midea, Gree, TCL and LMZ started to invest their idle capital in the real-estate and stock markets. Investments of manufacturing capital in both the real estate and stock markets have increased fluid capital and pushed up the value of both markets. Booms in both markets have in turn guaranteed investment returns of manufacturing capital, which further increased the stock market valuations of manufacturing capital. Such a cycle has created interest chains between listed manufacturers, the stock market and the real-estate market. Along with the ups and downs of the stock and real-estate markets, manufacturing capital now faces a dilemma: to escape or to persist? Where should it escape? When can the markets be profitable again? Just like the classic Shakespearean question: to be or not to be, that is the question.
2008年03期 20-28页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2473K] - 郭树清;
This article analyzes the internal and external imbalances of China’s economy from a global perspective. The author believes that trade surplus and savings surplus are not the absolute metrics to define a country’s economic strength. China’s balance of payments has continued to maintain a big surplus, which shows China’s unique economic structure and growth model and exposes deep contradictions in income distribution, factor prices and resource allocation. While stimulating rapid growth, the imbalance of China’s economy, at the same time, has long delayed the upgrading of industrial structure, aggravating the threat of inflation and heightening concerns of an asset bubble. Although the external and internal imbalances are closely linked to each other, they are quite different in nature. This similar global economic imbalance has existed for a long time, and to a great extent, is inevitable and rational. However, internal imbalances caused by its own systems and policies, if lasted, would have severe and negative impacts not only on China’s economy, but on the global economy as a whole.
2008年03期 29-40页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1334K] - 唐旭;梁猛;
There are two inaccuracies to the common belief that hot money flows into China through international trade: "hot money" and "trade channels". First, China’s domestic financial market is still at the initial stage of development, and foreign exchange control has put barriers to entry and exit of overseas capital. Strictly speaking, the short-term highly liquid "hot money" does not exist in China, and is referred to as long-term speculative capital in this paper. Second, such capital does not come from trade alone. International trade is only part of corporate business operations, and a more reasonable and complete description is that "overseas capital flows into China through foreign-funded enterprises". Through analysis of the inflow channels, this paper estimates that the stock of long-term speculative capital between 1999 and 2006 stands at almost US$ 400 billion. The year 2006 saw an increase of US$ 98.09 billion, of which US$ 35.4 billion was formed through international trade, which equals to roughly 20% of trade surplus that year. But this does not mean that 20% of trade surplus is long-term speculative capital.
2008年03期 41-52页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1366K] - 陈飞翔;黎开颜;刘佳;
Reform and opening up has made China’s economy develop faster than ever. But it has not succeeded in changing the regional disparity in China. In this article, we establish a model factor input called the "lock-in effect" and analyze the channel of the lock-in effect and how it influences the regional economy. On the analyses of thirty provinces’ panel data in China from 1990 to 2005, we find that the lock-in effect of factor inputs further exacerbates the developmental imbalance among regions.
2008年03期 53-64页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 713K] - 齐建国;
This paper gives an analysis on the reasons for China's rapid economic growth, highlighting its momentum and challenges. It includes the study and forecast on the growth rate during the "11th Five-year Plan" period and the achievability of energy conservation and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, putting forward four policy recommendations in response to the new developments in the economy since 2006.
2008年03期 65-75页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1425K] - 张晓晶;
This article first presents an analysis of the two most important macro variables: inflation and growth. In respect to inflation that faces a daunting landscape at the present time, China can still hold the inflation rate at an appropriate level in 2008. In consideration to a world economic slowdown and primary goods price trends as well as domestic price hikes and production overcapacity, inflation should be able to be kept in check in 2008. In regards to growth, this article employs the Phillips curve equation to arrive at a potential growth rate of 9.4% for China in 2008. Over the next couple of decades, however, the potential growth rate is projected to decline. Subsequently, this article discusses the challenges facing the tightening monetary policy: the trade-off between growth and inflation, the quagmire of liquidity control, the different interest rate movement episodes of China and the Unites States at different stages of economic cycles, and the temporary expediency nature of taming inflation through currency appreciation. Nevertheless, monetary policy still has a positive role to play and China should remain steadfast in pursuing monetary austerity policies. Last but not least, the article presents an outlook for the future.
2008年03期 76-85页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 932K] - 马晓河;马建蕾;
The existence of surplus labor in the countryside and transfer of agricultural labor to non-agricultural sectors is a common phenomenon in economic development.Supply of rural surplus labor will change with the transfer of labor.By calculating the di erence between the agricultural labor force and current demand of laborin agriculture,this paper seeks to estimate the total amount of China's rural surplus labor as identified by age,gender and education.Results indicate that there areroughly 110 million rural surplus laborers,of which 50%are aged above 40 years old,55.37%are women,and 42.96%have received an education below primaryschool.Currently,China’s rural surplus labor supply falls short of non-agricultural industry demand.
2008年03期 86-93页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 831K] - 虞群娥;李爱喜;
Domestic and foreign studies have revealed the existence of an interactive development relationship between nono cial nance and small and medium-sizedenterprises.Based on the empirical findings of a Hangzhou case study,this article substantiates the existence of a very strong symbiotic relationship between China’s nono cial nance and small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs).This symbiotic relationship is an equilibrium outcome among three market players:formalnance,nono cial nance and SMEs.Meanwhile,it is also a rational choice and suboptimal equilibrium point reached under the existing institutional spaceconstraints.In our empirical study,we found that formal nance failure left a space for symbiosis to survive in two ways:the comparative advantages of nono cialnance created an institutional basis for symbiosis to grow,and immense SME fund shortages created a market space for symbiosis to thrive.In this article,we alsoput forward some recommendations for further development of such a symbiotic relationship.
2008年03期 94-103页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1772K] - 邓大松;胡宏伟;
Recently,China has experienced a noteworthy phenomenon among migrant workers characterized by them being"moving but not settled down,settled down butexcluded".This is due to their"intrinsic citizenship"lagging behind their"extrinsic citizenship".In a normal state,however,"intrinsic citizenship"should proceed insynchronization with"extrinsic citizenship".In reality,"intrinsic citizenship"is manifested as the positioning and recognition of one’s self-identity role.By carryingout a multinomial logistic regression analysis of migrant workers self-identity role,we nd that"intrinsic citizenship"lags behind"extrinsic citizenship"primarily dueto differences in migrant farmers’education,age and marital status.The most fundamental reason for this is that migrant farmers cannot acquire the same basic civilrights of regular citizens,including basic social security rights.In other words,migrant farmers are deprived of their basic civil rights to which citizens are entitled.In light of an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon,and based on the conclusions reached,this article puts forward recommendations for speeding up the process formigrant farmers to acquire social security rights and accelerate their citizenship process.
2008年03期 104-115页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1278K] - 华民;
As a major developing country,China has attracted significant attention as to whichpathitshouldfol owfortechnologicalprogress.Accordingtotheauthorofthispaper,Chinashouldcontinueto pursue the international division of labor and competition strategy based on comparative advantages.Meanwhile,China should,through reform and adjustment,build a national innovation system capable ofplaying an e ective role in the future.However,laying too much emphasis on proprietary innovation atthe present stage wil bring about undesirable consequences.The timing for China to embark on a path oftechnologicaldevelopmentthroughproprietaryinnovationissubjecttothechangesbothintradeconditionsandin income distribution e ects arising from proprietary innovation.
2008年03期 116-125页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 759K] - 简新华;张皓;
Presently China mainly relies on the low cost of production factors and introducing advanced foreign technology to create an international competitive edge.Thepresent foreign trade growth mode,which is charaterized of quantitative expansion,labor-intensive and low prices,low e ciency,unsustained,is facing lots ofdifficulties.The problems such as the worsening terms of trade,the huge trade surplus,too much dependence on foreign trade,the rising prices of production factors,difficulties in the introduction of high technology,excessive consumption of resources,environmental pressures exacerbated the situations.Therefore,China mustadopt effective measures into a sustained and high efficiency foreign trade growth mode,which is supposed to be described as optimization of export commoditystructure,market diversification,mainly relying on independent innovation and independent brands,promoting trade with science and technology,rationaliztion ofindustrial structure,focusing on high added value.
2008年03期 126-136页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 725K] - 王晓光;
To better understand where Chinese corporate employee compensation stands now,China Enterprise Confederation(CEC)organized China Corporate EmployeeCompensation Survey.This article presents an exhaustive analysis of the ndings of this survey and an elaboration on the in uence of compensation on corporatelabor relationship in 5 respects.
2008年03期 137-144页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1062K] 下载本期数据