- 金碚;
<正>Against the backdrop of a bleak world recession triggered by the U.S. nancial crisis, China still manages to maintain its economic growth rate above 5%, and is therefore seen as a powerful engine for pulling the world economy out of its current quagmire.
2009年04期 1页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 65K] - 陈佳贵;黄群慧;
Based on the construction of an evaluation indictor system, this paper analyzes the modernization levels of 15 industries included in China’s five industry categories: energy, high-tech, medium high-tech, medium low-tech and low-tech industries. Our research reaches five conclusions. First, the level of modernization of the shipbuilding, iron and steel, and petroleum industries has achieved 50% of the advanced level globally, and these three industries have covered half of the modernization process. Second, the level of industrial modernization of the electric power, computer manufacturing and textile industries has exceeded the overall level in China, and now approaches 50% of the advanced level globally. Third, the level of industrial modernization of the chemical industry is also higher than the whole level in China. Fourth, the modernization level of the cement, coal mining and lathe industries is the lowest. This level is under the Chinese overall level of industrial modernization, and has not achieved 30% of the advanced level globally, which is to say that these three industries have not covered a third of the modernization process. Lastly, the industrial modernization level of the pharmaceutical, telecommunication equipment, automobile, food and papermaking industries is equivalent to the whole level of Chinese industrial modernization, and has basically finished a third of the modernization course.
2009年04期 5-16页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1456K] - 蔡昉;
This paper presents a review of the demographic dividend in China’s economic growth or the contribution of the demographic factor to China’s rapid economic growth over the past 30 years. Based on this review, it explores how China has sustained high-speed economic growth in the midst of a slowdown in working age population growth, surplus labor depletion and population aging. This study intends to demonstrate that the second demographic dividend may still arise after the decline and even disappearance of the first demographic dividend to avoid demographic debt by boosting labor productivity through the furtherance of education, extending the competitive advantage of China’s industry, tapping new sources of savings through institutional arrangements of pension security, and expanding labor resource and human capital stock in the aging era through the institutional arrangements in the labor market.
2009年04期 17-24页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2399K] - 朱民;边卫红;
The subprime mortgage crunch that had simmered throughout 2007 erupted into a global financial crisis in mid-September 2008. To deal with the globally raging crisis, governments worldwide unveiled massive bailout plans. Up till now governments have been ratcheting up the size of bailouts and the extent of direct intervention as the financial crisis is spreading and the economic recession is deepening. Meanwhile, governments worldwide are also making tough policy choices among bailout and economic stimulus options. Government decisions made in this unprecedented global financial crisis are, in our opinion, replete with contradictions and mistakes. It is fully understandable that a government may make imperfect decisions when it takes on an unprecedented challenge without adequate preparation. Severely underestimating the nature and magnitude of the crisis and lacking a global macro-perspective and an overall framework and guideline when designing bailout packages, have, however, affected the impact of bailouts and created pitfalls that may come back to haunt the economies in the future.
2009年04期 25-36页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 748K] - 金碚;
The reason why materials on earth are divided into "resources" and "waste" is fundamentally dependent on the level of industrial technology and the scale of industrial demand. The only viable option for humans to end their resource and environmental predicament is to resolutely and efficiently push forward industrialization. At present, China’s industrial development is still at a stage of severe resource and environmental deterioration. The fact that industrial production activity is becoming cleaner does not mean that industrial production has reached the satisfactory level of resource conservation and environmental protection. On the contrary, as China is still at the intermediate stage of industrialization, it is imperative to go ahead with massive resource consumption amid heavy industrial development. China’s industrial production has led to severe resource waste and environmental pollution. Therefore, strengthening resource and environmental regulation and enhancing regulatory effectiveness are still a very important, though tough, issue for China to address in its industrialization process at the present time. The fundamental objectives of government regulation of resources and the environment are: i) to realize the viable objective of resource conservation and environmental protection; and ii) to maintain an effective order of fair competition. An effective and feasible way toward resource and environmental regulation is to realize the resource conservation and environmental protection policy objectives and help improve the long-term industrial and corporate competitiveness, with a special emphasis on boosting the international competitiveness of China’s industry under the rule of fair competition. Moderate and reasonable regulatory intensity requires imposing effective constraints on corporate behavior without going beyond the maximum level of affordability dictated by the current level of industrial and corporate competitiveness, with a special focus on striking the right balance between the principles of economic efficiency and social benefits.
2009年04期 37-45页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 969K] - 张其仔;郭朝先;白玫;
Promoting economic growth has become the first and foremost objective of macro-control since China experienced a drastic economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2008. Now China is at a special stage of transition characterized by the transformation of the economic growth mode. While promoting economic growth, the government must effectively coordinate the relationship between economic growth and the transformation of growth mode. This is not a task that can be done easily. To promote economic growth, the central government has selected a number of industries and formulated an industrial revitalization plan for each of these them. Revitalizing these industries helps promote economic growth at the present stage but propelling these industries alone still cannot fully meet the requirements for transforming the economic growth pattern. To coordinate the relationship between promoting economic growth and transforming the economic growth pattern, it is currently imperative to adjust China’s industrial upgrading strategy and to pay attention to intra-industrial upgrading, particularly process upgrading.
2009年04期 46-58页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1316K] - 朱玲;金成武;
This statistics-based study shows that in China the urban-rural income gap is contributing more to general income inequality than regional income gaps are. The regional income disparity sets in an east-west plus central contrast while the urban-rural gap is most significantly present in the west and central areas between the cities and the countryside. Rural migrant laborers have helped shrink the urban-rural and regional income gaps. However, when the economy is hit by the global financial crisis to slow, a number of public actions are crucial and urgent to reduce income inequality and enhance social stability. The actions would include an immediate social bail-out and provisions for social security for rural-based migrants currently working in the cities, employment programs targeting low-income group as well as encouraging entrepreneurship.
2009年04期 59-64页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1043K] - Ronald Mckinnon;Gunther Schnabl;
China’s financial conundrum arises from two sources: (1) its large trade (saving) surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead foreign currency claims (largely dollars) build up within domestic financial institutions. And (2) economists – both American and Chinese – mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued renminbi. To placate the United States, the result is a gradual appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar of 6% or more per year. This predictable appreciation since 2004, and the fall in US interest rates since mid 2007, not only attracts hot money inflows but inhibits private capital outflows from financing China’s huge trade surplus. This one-way bet in the foreign exchange markets can no longer be offset by relatively low interest rates in China compared to the United States, as had been the case in 2005-06. Thus, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) now must intervene heavily to prevent the renminbi from ratcheting upwards – and so becomes the country’s sole international financial intermediary. Despite massive efforts by the PBOC to sterilize the monetary consequences of the reserve buildup, inflation in China is increasing, with excess liquidity that spills over into the world economy. China has been transformed from a deflationary force on American and European price levels into an inflationary one. Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable – and a higher RMB would not reduce China’s trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal yuan/dollar rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. But for any newly reset yuan/dollar rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign "China bashing" to get the RMB up must end. Currency stabilization would allow the PBOC to regain monetary control and quash inflation. Only then can the Chinese government take decisive steps to reduce the trade (saving) surplus by tax cuts, increased social expenditures, and higher dividend payouts. But as long as the economy remains overheated, the government hesitates to take these trade-surplus-reduction measures because of their near-term inflationary consequences.
2009年04期 65-77页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 811K] - 裴长洪;
In recent years, China’s service industries have absorbed an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI); foreign investors have taken wholly foreign-owned enterprise (WFOE) as the most preferred vehicle of making investment in China; free ports have become a major source of FDI inflows to China; China’s FDI inflows as a percentage of global FDI inflows have been in decline. In the export-oriented or import-substitution manufacturing industries, China still needs to vigorously absorb FDI in the future. In addition, China should continue opening its infrastructure and social service industries. It is therefore imperative to further improve the institutional and policy environment for foreign investment utilization.
2009年04期 78-85页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1176K] The use of renminbi for invoicing and settlement intermediaries in foreign-oriented activities is the first step and footstone of internationalization of the Chinese currency. With the appreciation of renminbi in recent years, there has been a growth of renminbi invoicing and settlement in China’s border trades, although the overall amount is small and the development momentum is imbalanced among different regions. The main obstacles come from such factors as VAT rebate policy restrictions and foreign exchange control, insufficient financial services, and under-cultivated willingness among enterprises. Looking from the strategic perspective of strengthening macro-adjustment and enhancing the open economy, it is pressing and would be beneficial to China to promote the renminbi’s invoicing and settlement function. Therefore, following the momentum, we should accelerate the construction of a cross-border renminbi clearing system, create non-discriminative treatment in terms of VAT rebate and exchange control policies, and gradually expand the usage of the renminbi from border trades to general trades and outward investment.
2009年04期 86-93页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1556K] - Bastianin Andrea;Cattanceo Cristina;Markandya Anil;
This analysis aims at giving a flavour of what is happening between the European and Chinese markets with reference to selected energy indicators and economic variables. More precisely the analysis is concerned with the convergence between European countries (EU15 + Norway) and China in terms of both per capita GDP and "sustainability indicators". The variables we refer to as "sustainability indicators" are two: energy intensity (EI) and carbon intensity (CI). The paths of such variables will be investigated both looking at the economy as a whole and by analysing what is happening in three sectors of economic activity, namely industry, agriculture and services. It finds strong evidence of convergence in energy intensity and carbon intensity between the EU and China, with rates fast enough to achieve 90% convergence in a matter of two decades.
2009年04期 94-102页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2791K] - 姜长云;张晓敏;张艳平;
In this paper, we first look back at China’s grain production since reform and opening up and review the main factors of grain production at different stages. Secondly we find that the improvement of the per unit yield has become a major factor in the increase of grain production, and that corn has become a major grain production support variety; compared with the other varieties, paddy rice is most vulnerable in production; grain production has increasingly become dependant on scientific and technological progress and the role of infrastructure. Thirdly, the transformation of low-yielding fields in the future, the development of reserve land resources and acceleration of scientific and technological progress – these factors together promote China's great potential for grain production; but through adjusting variety structure to promote grain production is nearly impossible. Finally, the main constraints of China’s future grain production are as follows: reduction of arable land and water shortages is becoming increasingly constrained; agricultural comparative advantage is low; opportunity cost is high and accelerating at the same time; and the uncertainties of (1) whether the agricultural inputs by government at all levels of can significantly increase the intensity; (2) whether support of the reform of grain production and systems can achieve breakthrough; and (3) whether the risk of the development of grain production can be effectively prevented. On this basis, we draw the relevant conclusions and policy recommendations.
2009年04期 103-111页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1830K] - 殷醒民;
Technological progress is the main driver of labor productivity in manufacturing industries. But it is capital accumulation that makes such progress possible. In the early 21st century, China’s manufacturing entered a process of capital deepening, in which labor productivity improvement is based on the increase of per capita assets. Capital accumulation in technical industries has created higher labor productivity and enabled phenomenal growth of new technology industries, contributing to the rapid and all-round growth of manufacturing industries as a whole. This is the real premise of China’s sustained economic growth over the past ten years.
2009年04期 112-120页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 224K] - 王国刚;
Excessive liquidity seriously affects Chinese economy. Thus, various policy proposals have been submitted by some scholars. The author holds that whatever form it may take, reducing trade surplus would harm China’s economic development. On the other hand, it is difficult to boost domestic consumption by increasing the resident spending on food, clothing etc. In order to consolidate the policy of domestic demand, it is important to separate production and non-production investment and create better economic conditions by accelerating the development of non-production investment and increasing the supply of "housing, traveling and education" related consumption.
2009年04期 121-128页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 3448K] 下载本期数据