- 金碚;
<正>In the economic analysis framework,natural resources and environmental factors are included in the category of capital or land.Hence,the explanatory variables of the production function only include capital,labor and the residue term technology.Such framework may be designed for methodological reasons,but it is determined
2009年05期 1页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 800K] <正>China's economic downturn has been brought under control with a series of stimulus policies,and the economy is in a critical period of stable recovery.In the first half of this year,its GDP growth reached 7.1%,and is expected to rise in the second half of the year.Overall,the annual growth rate for this year may exceed the goal of 8%. Maintaining growth remains a top priority of the next stage of macro-regulation,and China must steadfastly implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately relaxed monetary policy.In maintaining growth and expanding domestic consumption,China should be patient,follow the laws of economic development,and properly balance the urgent economic growth priorities with long-term sustainable development.Macro-regulation should highlight transformation of growth pattern,strategic restructuring and improvement of economic efficiency.We should implement the policies that have been alrendy issued,and make policy preparations against emerging domestic and international situations and problems.
2009年05期 5-13页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 4421K] - 江小涓;
<正>This paper takes stock of the process and achievements of China's opening-up,which has stimulated the country's economic growth,reform and structural upgrading and allowed China to benefit from income distribution.The new mission of opening-up should be to increase total factor productivity and improve opening-up regime.
2009年05期 14-20页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 4349K] - 许宪春;
<正>This paper analyzes the cyclical characteristics of China's economic growth and inflation since reform and opening-up, and explores the intrinsic link between the two.The study will be a guideline to keep a good balance between economic growth and inflation.
2009年05期 21-25页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2140K] - 张晓晶;汤铎铎;林跃勤;
<正>This paper examines the inherent relationship between the global imbalance and the financial crisis from historical review and a survey of the literature.This paper sets up a two-country model featured by monetary hegemony showing that the financial crisis of 2008 is interrelated with the United States' expansionary monetary policy and the hegemony of the U.S.dollar.This paper then analyses the impact of the crisis and the policy responses,focusing on the preconditions for China's economic recovery.Through an international comparison,we argue that one of the Great Depression's lessons is that the exorbitant government intervention in some areas was harmful and that the necessary condition for China's recovery is economic flexibility,namely,resilient market mechanisms.
2009年05期 26-34页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1125K] <正>Finance and Trade Economics(monthly) is sponsored by the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics,and directed by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.It is one of the oldest and most prestigious journals in economics in China,
2009年05期 35页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 938K] - 张车伟;王智勇;
<正>Referencing statistical yearbooks and census data,we first estimate the total number of rural migrant workers in China at about 238 million in 2008,including 71.4 million working across provinces.We also estimate how many migrant workers will be affected by the financial crisis and may lose their jobs.The coastal areas are the hardest hit.We predict that China in the first half of 2009 will face the most serious employment situation since the dawn of the new century, and that structural unemployment of rural migrant workers is the main problem.We estimate that around 34.18 million rural migrant workers would be facing the risk of structural unemployment.In order to cope with the shocks to rural migrant workers' employment,the government should put a policy emphasis on adjusting rural migrant workers to new jobs.
2009年05期 36-43页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 3705K] - 杨斌;
<正>As financial derivatives have exploded like bombs,one ofter another,capital injections by the U.S.and European governments are becoming gradually ineffective.These rescue measures will fail to revese the banding crisis,and even worse,may plunge the global economy from deflation into a cycle of inflation during recession.Ultimately,economic collapse and hyperinflation may occur simultaneously.In response to this grave possibility,China should unite first stakeholders in demanding the U.S.government strictly distinguish two kinds of debts in its rescue package:The first are bonds such as U.S.pension funds,3A grade bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae,and U.S.government bonds held by other countries,These are creditor's rights,which should be guaranteed with top priority.The second kind are debts deriving from the speculation at financial institutions such as highly leveraged derivatives,which have reached astronomical figures.Attempts to rescue such bad debts will only lead to hyperinflation.
2009年05期 44-49页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 939K] - 刘伟;蔡志洲;
<正>Regional economic disparities are often regarded as signs of a country's uneven or backward development.After analyzing China's regional economic performances from 2003 to 2007,this paper concludes that the emergence of interior regions provides new momentum for China's economic growth,and regional disparities can be taken as an important source in countering the current economic cycle and maintaining rapid growth.
2009年05期 50-56页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1042K] - 都阳;曲玥;
<正>Unlike the usual practice of equating wages or labor compensation with labor cost,this paper incorporates labor productivity into an analytical framework and holds that the labor cost advantage is the relative relationship between labor compensation and labor productivity.Based on an empirical study of the data of Chinese manufacturing firms that include all state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises with their annual revenue greater than 5 million yuan from 2000 to 2007,this paper finds that labor compensation growth was accompanied by faster labor productivity growth.Hence,the labor cost advantage was not weakened during this period.Furthermore,this paper conducts an exploration of how to sustain labor cost advantages in the future and proposes that they can be sustained by upgrading the industrial structure and improving the education system.
2009年05期 58-65页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 3695K] - 蔡跃洲;
<正>Based on the decomposition of China's rural household income,we made quantitative analyses of the factors affecting rural consumption by using co-integration and other econometric tools.By comparing the results with the ongoing economic stimulus package rolled out by the central government,we analyzed the effects of different policies on rural consumption.The empirical study and policy analysis show that:(1) income from household business operation, wages,and fiscal relief funds are the three main factors affecting rural household consumption;(2) the ongoing stimulus package,which includes both short-term measures like consumption subsidies and long-term policies aiming to increase rural household income and improve the rural consumption environment,are effective in promoting rural consumption;(3) in boosting rural consumption,emphasis should be put on various long-term policies.Fiscal expenditure should put more weight on consumption than on agriculture,forestry and irrigation;and(4) intra-county economies are crucial in kicking off rural consumption.Policies should be stressed for integrating rural consumption and the development of local economies.
2009年05期 66-73页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 4706K] - 孙文凯;梅松;
<正>Most scholars believe that FDI inflow has a direct impact on China's foreign exchange reserve,while others hold that FDI is mainly invested in the form of physical capital and technology,and therefore does not directly contribute to China's foreign exchanges reserve accumulation.This paper points out that both effects,direct and indirect,should be considered when assessing FDI's contribution to foreign exchange reserves.Result shows that from 1986 to 2007,FDI contributed 50%to foreign exchange reserves and the direct effect dominant before 2003 was surpassed by indirect effect after 2001 as the major source of the contribution.
2009年05期 74-78页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2717K] - 刘阳;秦凤鸣;
<正>This paper analyzes the relationship between the stock of infrastructure and income increases using data from 15 typical countries,including China,and measures the gap between China and npper-middlle-income countries using the Euclidean distance.By constructing a domestic infrastructure investment demand model,this paper provides the basis for determining the growth rates for infrastructure investment demand under the given economic development goals and assessing the rationality of such growth rates.The paper finds that,as the per-capita income level increases, the total infrastructure demand rises but different types of infrastructure stock grow at different paces.Using the 2004 domestic infrastructure level as the benchmark for international comparison,we find it imperative for China to further boost resource infrastructure construction in the future and keep resource infrastructure investment growing at an average annual rate of 15%-24%.The infrastructure investment growth rate should be kept above the nominal GDP growth rate.
2009年05期 79-87页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 4470K] - 孙小羽;臧新;
<正>By establishing a hybrid-units input-output model,this paper calculates total energy intensity coefficients and total pollution intensity coefficients of four energy sectors and 23 non-energy sectors.Meanwhile,using export data for 2002-2006,it estimates China's export-related energy consumption,CO_2 emissions and atmospheric pollution.The results reveal that the more China exports goods and services to other parts of the world,the more energy consumption, CO_2 emissions and atmospheric pollutants are transferred to China from outside its borders.Ihe tremendous damage of export-related pollution to China's economy and the environment deserves serious attention.
2009年05期 88-96页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2212K] - 沈利生;唐志;
<正>This paper investigates the impact of foreign trade on China's pollution emissions using an input-output model. Generally speaking,as exports are more pollution-intensive than imports,foreign trade helps reduce China's emissions. Given the huge surplus of trade in goods and declines in the ratio of import/export emission intensities,an emission deficit emerged in China's foreign trade.The fundamental cause is the worsening product mix of foreign trade.With technical progress outpaced by foreign trade growth,however,total emissions of export goods have been on the rise.
2009年05期 97-105页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 4741K] - 金碚;李钢;梁泳梅;
<正>The Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and China Business Journal jointly conducted an online survey on the thinking and research of China's young economists on the country's economic issues. The survey lasted from June 17 to June 26,2009.
2009年05期 106-112页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2859K] - 韩俊;崔传义;金三林;
<正>This paper reviews the development of the rural migrant worker issue in China since reform and opening-up began. Firstly,utilizing substantial investigation,the authors analyze the new characteristics of Chinese rural migrant workers;Secondly,authors analyze the migrant workers' contributions to reshaping the rural landscape and to driving China's economic development and social structural change;Finally,using a quantitative analysis model,they examine the long-term trends of rural migrant workers and their interactions with macroeconomic and social development.
2009年05期 113-122页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1657K] <正>Two surveys conducted in Hong Kong and China's mainland reveal predictions of a quick recovery ahead for both economies.The surveys were conducted by CPA Australia,with the Hong Kong survey jointly sponsored by Deloitte China and CPA Australia's Hong Kong China division.
2009年05期 123-126页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2682K]