- 金碚;
<正>Amid the current financial crisis, China's industries have demonstrated growing competitiveness and a capacity to resist risks. However, some deep-rooted problems have been dramatized in this shock. Having experienced the
2009年06期 1页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 94K] - 金碚;
In China, the real industrialization and modernization process started in 1949, when the Chinese people were emancipated from the yoke of the Kuomintang and the People's Republic of China (P.R.C) was founded. However, the road of emancipation has been a bumpy one. In particular, the emancipation of the mind has often been full of twists and turns. The tremendous liberation of social productive forces originated in the emancipation of the mind, whose truth has been tested by economic development practices. In the past 60 years China has paid tremendous efforts and costs in pursuit of emancipation, and today it still needs to emancipate the mind anew. For 60 years, since the formation of P.R. C, the country has kept pursuing the emancipation of the mind while exploring ways of change in institution, strategy and policy. In the first 30 years China attempted to devise an idealistic approach of transition to the socialist planned economic system, which was characterized by continuous revolution and movement. In the second 30 years China explored a realistic approach of transition to the socialist market economic system, which is characterized by incremental reform and opening-up. For six decades industry has remained at the forefront of transformation. The emancipation of the mind and the realization of change aim to ultimately make China a strong nation with an affluent people. The purpose of the six-decade struggle in new China is to erase the stigma of "being poor and blank," secure a firm and strong foothold in the world, restore China's status as a world power and let the Chinese people enjoy the affluence and welfare of a well-off society. The central mission of this national revitalization is to realize industrialization. Therefore, industrialization has been the central theme of China's revitalization in the past 60 years. After 60 years of industrialization, hundreds of millions of Chinese people are now able to enjoy ever-increasing wealth from industrial civilization. However, still a larger proportion of China's 1.3 billion people are awaiting industrial civilization. In this sense, industrialization is not only the focus of China's socioeconomic development but also the world's largest livelihood mission. Industrial development is more of a means of enhancing people's livelihood than a means of regaining the title as a world power. This will become one of the distinctive characteristics of China's industrialization in the new stage.
2009年06期 5-18页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1820K] - 殷醒民;
This paper compares the internal structures of the manufacturing industries in China and the U.S. from 1998 to 2005 and leads to three major discoveries: First, the gaps between China and the U.S.'s manufacturing capacity have been narrowing at a high speed in the last seven years, during which the share of added value of China's manufacturing industry to that of the U.S. increased from 13% to 52%, and then reached 76% in 2007. Second, the labor force employed in China's manufacturing industry increased by 50%, of which the increase in capital and technology-intensive production sectors exceeded that in labor-intensive sectors. Meanwhile, the labor force employed in the U.S. manufacturing industry decreased. Third, labor productivity in China's manufacturing industry increased by 2.78 times, and profits increased by 2.21 times, much higher than the U.S. growth rates of 18.2% and 49.5%. Obviously, the narrowing gaps between China and the U.S.'s production capacities mean China's industrial progress and the hierarchy of world industrial powers will be rearranged.
2009年06期 20-30页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 522K] - 文东伟;冼国明;
This paper represents an attempt to estimate the level of vertical specialization in China's manufacturing industry using China's input-output tables (1995-2005) compiled by the OECD; describe the trends of evolution in the trade competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry using the 1995-2006 trade data of 24 Chinese industries; and examine the key factors affecting the trade competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry in accordance with the analytical framework of Hummels et al (2001). The estimation results indicate that i) the rapid increase in the vertical specialization levels of China's merchandise sectors (especially the high-tech manufacturing sector) has to some extent explained the explosive growth of China's exports (especially high-tech exports) in recent years; ii) there have been no substantive changes in China's comparative advantages. Such advantages are still attributed to the low-tech manufacturing sector. However, the comparative advantage and trade competitiveness of the high-tech manufacturing sector have been on the rise; iii) vertical specialization has signif icantly enhanced the trade competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. Foreign market dependence, domestic intermediate input intensity and R&D intensity have an obvious promoting effect on the trade competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry.
2009年06期 32-41页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 724K] - 刘志彪;
International outsourcing is an important way to realize intra-product division of labor. China's industrial upgrade and policy efforts directed at outsourcing are not entirely endogenous but have a dependent path prone to be captured and locked at the low end of the global value chain by developed countries at the chain's high end. In light of the stage and reality of China's economic development, we should not only upgrade manufacturing outsourcing but also grasp service outsourcing opportunities. We should implement a strategy of coordinated development of manufacturing and service outsourcing rather than hastily transforming China from a "factory of the world" into an "office of the world." Balancing services with manufacturing and linking the global value chain with the domestic value chain is the best tool to address the problem of China's uneven regional development and establish a multi-tiered modern industrial system.
2009年06期 42-48页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 482K] - 陈东琪;
Since last October, loose monetary and credit policies and the stimulus package have produced desired results. The economy has entered into a "V-shaped" recovery in the second quarter of this year after hitting the bottom in the first quarter, with various economic indicators rising fast, rescue missions completed and short-term objectives basically met. In this context, the next step of macro-regulation should focus on long-term objectives, speed up institutional innovation and restructuring, control the intensity, pattern and pace of short-term policy loosening and prevent inflation and wild swings in the economy so as to achieve a new round of sustained and rapid economic growth.
2009年06期 50-59页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1190K] - 姚枝仲;
China had been increasing outbound investments before the global financial crisis as result of seeking a stable supply chain, stable market and advanced technology. The global financial crisis did not reduce Chinese enterprises' driving force of outbound investment but provides more opportunities. Chinese enterprises may also face more traps in outbound investments. However, they can avoid failure by choosing objects prudently.
2009年06期 60-67页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1258K] - 吴宏;刘威;
Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.
2009年06期 68-77页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 4601K] - 王元龙;
Internationalization of the renminbi is the only option for China to fully integrate into the global economic and financial systems. It is not only necessary but imperative as well. With the discussion of advancing renminbi internationalization, benef its and costs must be addressed. We need to closely monitor possible risks and bring out the benefits while averting disadvantages. The overall strategy is to consolidate the groundwork and at the same time actively advance renminbi internationalization and opt for a "three-step" strategy at both strategic and policy levels. To overcome the constraints standing in the way of renminbi internationalization, the basic goals should be: to enhance the readiness of renminbi internationalization, dialectically assess the preconditions, and increase the currency's international circulation as a way to achieve major progress in renminbi internationalization.
2009年06期 78-85页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 842K] - 蓝海涛;姜长云;
This research indicates that with the changes in economic cycles, China's production costs are experiencing "wave-shaped" spiral growth. From 2004 to 2008, China's grain production costs increased rapidly, with the primary driving force the rapid growth of labor, land and material costs. In the middle stage of industrialization, China's grain production costs will experience spiral growth following economic cyclical fluctuations, entering relative stability after a certain period. From 2009 to around 2012, grain production costs will drop, but average production costs may be higher than in the current upward cycle. From 2013 to around 2020, grain production costs will rise again and be much higher than in the current upward cycle.
2009年06期 86-93页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2371K] - 陈柏峰;
Peasants' motivation and purpose for transferring land vary from time to time. Based on a survey of 10 villages in Jingshan county, Hubei province, this article finds that the specific forms of rural land transfer include active long-term transfer, passive long-term transfer and short-term transfer. Land transfer has an important impact on the stratification of the peasantry. Present institutional arrangements for land ignore the legitimate interests of migrant families and poor and weak villagers and therefore they hold different attitudes toward land tenure institutions than middle peasants do. Based on the conclusions of an empirical analysis, this article puts forward a series of policy recommendations aimed at protecting the land rights of poor and weak peasant households.
2009年06期 94-102页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1524K] - 邓大才;
Traditional theory holds that a farmland transfer market comes of institution, demand and land lease. In this article, several villages, including Hongqi in Sichuan province, Liyuantun in Hebei province, Hucun in Hunan province, and Xiaogang and its neighboring villages in Anhui province, are studied in terms of the formation and development of their farmland transfer markets. Based on this study, the article concludes that the prerequisite for the making of farmland transfer market is farmland output and returns. It is a necessary condition for the market while demand is a sufficient one. In particular, external capital may promote the demand for farmland and rediscover farmland value. Institution, however, is not the direct reason for the inception of the farmland transfer market, though it ensures that the regulations for this market will be upgraded.
2009年06期 103-111页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 330K] - 肖轶;魏朝富;尹珂;罗光莲;
This paper attempts to conduct a comparative analysis of the two typical farmland transfer models introduced by Chongqing in its comprehensive coordinated reform experiment for balanced urban and rural development: i) the "pooling of land as shares" in Qilin village, Changshou district; and ii) the "homestead/house swap, contracted land/ social security swap" in Jiulongpo district. It is estimated that the former model offers lower land appreciation benef its than the latter; the former faces greater operational risks, whereas the latter can to a certain extent mitigate risks by boosting regulatory control and reasonable government guidance. The homestead/house swap, contracted land/social security swap model is therefore the preferred choice. It can solve a series of social security problems that arise after peasants are divorced from land and enable peasants to garner higher land appreciation benefits through farmland transfer.
2009年06期 112-119页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2100K] - 韩朝华;周晓艳;
An analysis of the sources of profit growth for China's state-owned industry since 1999 indicates that the key source of profit growth is not the high productivity of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) but rather their monopoly position and pricing power in some basic industries. From an overall social perspective, such high profitability means an inefficient allocation of industrial resources and a potential loss of social welfare. Therefore, further expanding and deepening the reform of SOE property rights, encouraging the development of non-SOEs and boosting the competitiveness of basic industries will significantly improve the resource allocation efficiency of the Chinese industry and enhance overall social welfare.
2009年06期 120-128页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1043K] 下载本期数据