- 金碚;
<正> China's State Council recently adopted Decisionsto Accelerate the Development of Strategic EmergingIndustries. It is reaffirmed in this document that strategicemerging industries are vital to China's restructuring
2010年06期 No.29 1页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 40K] - 裴长洪;樊瑛;
<正> Traditional foreign direct investment (FDI) theory only examines corporate investment motivation while neglectinggovernment roles.China's outward direct investment (ODI) is of both commercial and strategic significance to leveragedomestic and international resources and markets.ODI is a corporate behavior but also is a means of achieving nationalstrategies and heightening political and economic statuses.As a source of ODI,China should provide strong guidance andbacking to corporate ODI for both commercial and national interests.
2010年06期 No.29 4-13页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 485K] - 赖德胜;李长安;
<正> In the six decades since the founding of the People's Republic,especially in the more than three decades since the reform andopening-up,China has achieved remarkable success in its employment sector.However,there are still many contradictionsstanding in the way of an employment enlargement-oriented development strategy,for example,contradictions betweeneconomic growth and employment growth,between the heavy industry-oriented national economy and employmentenlargement,between rural labor transfer and the mounting urban employment pressure and between "hard to find jobs"and "shortage of skilled workers".Only when we carefully analyze underlying reasons for these contradictions can wedevelop corrective employment expansion strategies.
2010年06期 No.29 14-20页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1003K] - 何祚庥;
<正> Based on the data published by authorities in People's Daily,to meet the domestic primary energy need of 4.4bntons of standard coal in 2020,the energy elasticity coefficient should be unreasonably low.We therefore question thereasonableness of this scenario thus designed and instead propose different scenarios and estimate the possible energydemands needed for the whole country's industrialization and sustainable development.We point out that to meet thefuture energy consumption target of drawing 15 percent of energy from renewable sources and reducing carbon dioxideemissions by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels,we must focus on developing renewable energy like solar,wind and biomassenergy,etc.
2010年06期 No.29 21-29页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 644K] - 戴彦德;朱跃中;白泉;
<正> Global warming threatens the lives and development of human beings and has become one of the major challenges tohumanity in the 21st century.With China's continuous economic strengthening and closer contact with the world economy,prospects of China's energy demands,energy supply roadmap and related carbon emissions have become the focus ofvarious organizations.By applying a scenario analysis,this report analyzes and forecasts China's energy demands andcarbon emissions trends over the coming thirty to fifty years.Results indicate that under certain conditions,it will bepossible for China to take on a low carbon development path with Chinese characteristics.However,China needs overalladjustments in policy,institutions,structure,technology as well as strong support from international economic andpolitical environments.
2010年06期 No.29 30-39页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1140K] - 沈可挺;李钢;
<正> Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China's industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China's industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US＄30 or US＄60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China's industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.
2010年06期 No.29 40-49页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1023K] - 冯雷;李锋;
<正> China-U.S.trade has expanded rapidly over the past three decades,during which China's trade deficit has turned into atrade surplus.China's exports to the United States account for 20 percent of China's total export trade,but the United States'exports to China make up less than 10 percent of its export trade.The trade dependence ratio of the two countries has adifference of up to 27 percentage points.While China's economy and foreign trade become increasingly market-oriented,the U.S.implements long-term export restriction policies against it.Raising the degree of marketization of trade betweenChina and the U.S.is the key to redressing the China-U.S.trade imbalance.
2010年06期 No.29 50-57页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 907K] - 宋泓;柴瑜;
<正> Thanks to the intensive empirical studies,a reverse U-shape relationship was established between the diversification ofexport goods and the per-capita level of GDP.According to this framework,this paper analyzes the case of China,andfinds that in the next 10 years,labor-intensive goods will still be able to maintain their comparative advantages in China.This finding has important implications for China's future trade strategy and policy.
2010年06期 No.29 58-63页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 713K] - 李昕;Christer Ljungwall;徐滇庆;
<正> The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world's two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.
2010年06期 No.29 64-74页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1395K] - 刘建丽;王欣;
<正> During the 11 th Five-year Plan period (2006～2010),China effectively introduced a large amount of foreign capital inflowacross desired industries and regions.In the meantime,the changing international and domestic economic environmentshave posed new challenges.This paper has identified problems in terms of investment mode,innovation,institutionaldesign,industrial layout and economic security.In the upcoming 12th Five-year Plan period (2011 -2015),China willremain an attractive destination for foreign capital but also needs to increase FDI's productivity rather than just quantity.Besides,industrial and regional structures must be properly balanced.This paper takes stock of the 2006-2010 period andputs forward policy recommendations for the upcoming 2011-2015 period.
2010年06期 No.29 76-82页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 507K] - 马忠东;吕智浩;叶孔嘉;
<正> This paper describes the changes in China's total population,labor force age structure and labor force participation rate(LFPR).Based on census data,this paper assesses the age pattern and changes in the LFPR,examines factors affectingthe LFPR through modeling and predicts the trends of labor force development to 2050.We find that the labor force hasbeen growing rapidly at an average annual rate of 6 percent from 1980 to 2005 due to improvements in competency andstructure.On the other hand,the overall LFPR declined mainly due to prolonged education that slashed the LFPR amongadolescents.The age pattern of labor force participation is in the shape of an inverted-U curve.Results from a Logit regression model of labor participation indicate that labor force participation intensity is higher inthe South than in the North and higher among the male population than among the female population.Presuming that thetotal fertility rate climbs to 2.0,life expectancy increases by ten years,and delayed retirement age lengthen the duration oflabor participation.We have made the following forecasts:(1) China's future working age population will decrease;(2) labor force willexperience zero growth within 15 years and then negative growth;(3) the middle-aged and elderly populations willaccount for a significant share of the labor force.It is important to explore ways to increase,train and use human resourcesand increase the LFPR and productivity.In today's China,regional or structural labor force shortage has already emerged.With an ageing population,China should take proactive measures by relaxing its birth policy,increasing education andtraining,promoting labor flow,and increasing the LFPR among the middle-aged,particularly women,so as to preventsevere shocks from a diminishing labor force.
2010年06期 No.29 84-100页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2775K] - 潘越;杜小敏;
<正> This paper is the first to use a non-parameter additive model in the empirical analysis of the impact of cross-regional laborflow on industrialization and economic growth in China's eastern,central and western regions.Results indicate that laborflow has significantly different effects on the direction and intensity of impact on economic development across regions:massive labor inflow from the central and western regions to the eastern region significantly promoted the industrializationprocess and economic growth in the East,while the impact of labor outflow from the central and western regions on theregional economies is in a significantly inverted-U shaped non-linear relationship.Uneven labor flow across regions haswidened China's regional economic disparities.
2010年06期 No.29 102-111页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1526K] - 单海鹏;
<正> The objective of the West China Development Strategy was to boost economic development and to narrow the gap betweeneastern and western China.After ten years of implementation,now is the proper time to summarize and evaluate theperformance so that more suitable measures can be adopted in the subsequent stage.Applying quantitative and qualitativemethods,the author investigates the economic and social changes of the western regions between 1999 and 2008,andevaluates their performances based on the following factors:total economic output,the speed of economic growth,industrial structure,standard of living and infrastructure construction.
2010年06期 No.29 112-119页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1689K] - 王双正;
<正> In this paper,the author first summarizes China's price operation situation and characteristics since the 1990s,and thenanalyzes inflation shaping factors and types.Based on that,the author raises six inflation early-warning indexes andfully dissects influencing factors of the overall price trend and inflation risks during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Afterthat,the author explains some aspects of price fluctuation that warrants attention during the 12th Five-year Plan period.Finally,the author puts forward policies and suggestions for stabilizing the overall price during the transformation of theeconomic development mode based on our actual situation.
2010年06期 No.29 120-133页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 2371K] 下载本期数据