From the Editor

• China's Economic Growth Slower but Sustainable

  金碚;

  <正>Following more than two decades of rapid expansion,China's economy has recently gravitated towards a pattern of"steady growth."In response to the economic deceleration,China s economic policies have adopted a target of"growth stabilization and restructuring."This policy shift marks a milestone in China's economic development.Predictably,great changes will take place in China s economic growth,system and policies.

  2013年04期 v.8 1页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 72K]
  

Trends

• China's Macroeconomic Situation in 2013 with Predictions and Policy Recommendations for the Next Five Years

  李扬;张平;张晓晶;汪红驹;

  China's economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end. and China s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by a structural growth deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7%-8% per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7%annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China s macroeconomic objectives for the next5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.

  2013年04期 v.8 4-13页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 716K]
  

• The Driving Force and Direction of China's Industrial Transformation:A Perspective Based on New Structuralism

  巴曙松;郑军;

  According to New Structural Economics, the ultimate direction of industrial transformation is determined by factor endowment structure and the relative price system of factors. In today's China, the predominant factor in its labor endowment is shifting from population size to the regional movement of population and population quality, and its land endowment is changing from cheap, massive supply to expensive, limited supply, and the economy has potential of technological catch-up. Because of these three fundamental realities and the special situation that China is vast in territory and has a continuous industrial spectrum, its industrial transformation will be featured with "three unique regions within one country" and that the eastern region enters a new stage which focuses on the development of services, the six central provinces and the western triangle zone take over industries transferred from the east and the resource-rich western region becomes the "home front" as a major supplier of resources. However,this “three region differentiation”will not be automatically developed. Only in a competitive factor market, a flexible financial market and an elastic labor market can the persistent changes in endowment structure drive China s industrial structure towards its optimal form. To achieve this, we need to launch a series of necessary structural reforms.

  2013年04期 v.8 14-26页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1099K]
  

Focus

• Will Tertiary Industry Be the Driving Force of China's Economic Growth?

  李钢;

  Based on the analysis of inner motive of industrial structure evolution in developed countries after World War Ⅱ and the contribution of primary, secondary and tertiary industries to economic growth at similar economic development stage as China is, this paper argues that the rising proportion of tertiary industry in developed countries after World War Ⅱ is mainly caused by the price hikes in tertiary industry. During a similar economic development stage as China is, the secondary industry in both the U.S. and Japan contributed more than 60% to economic growth, thus became the driving force in real sense. This paper analyzes the change of industrial structure after 1978 and points out the gap in industrial structure when calculated by fixed price and current year's price. From1978 to 2009, China's industrial priority was mainly transferred from primary industry to tertiary industry in fixed price terms but shifted from primary industry to secondary industry in terms of current year's price. With a contribution rate of 68.8%, China's secondary industry is the chief driver of economic growth since 1978 and will continue to be so till2020. As the tertiary industry can hardly be such a driver, the increase in tertiary industry proportion is insignificant to real economic growth, so it is not necessary for China to put tertiary industry as the starting point of industrial upgrading. Instead, China shall try every means to improve the international competitiveness of secondary industry so as to promote the qualitative and rapid growth of Chinese economy by tapping into its quality-oriented demographic dividend.

  2013年04期 v.8 28-42页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1350K]
  

• How Does Technological Progress Affect Employment and Wage Differences in China's Information Industry?

  李春梅;杨蕙馨;

  Combining the development status of information industry in China and based on theoretical discussions on labor demand and supply as well as the comprehensive analysis on endogenous technological progress and exogenous educational quality, this paper concludes that the technological progress of information industry in China is skillbiased, i.e. technological progress of information industry increases the demand for skilled labor while decreases the demand for unskilled labor, and aggravates the wage difference between these two types of labor. Due to the effect of educational quality, the ratio of skilled labor employment to unskilled labor employment will reach a dynamic equilibrium and the wage difference between skilled labor and unskilled labor will not increase continuously.This paper then proves the foregoing conclusion with data of information industry in26 provinces(autonomous region, municipality). Focusing on typical skill-intensive information industry, this paper mainly studies the influence of educational quality, which not only complements the theoretical analysis on dual effects of technological progress on employment, but also provides feasible and practical basis to policies promoting the development of technological progress and full employment in China.

  2013年04期 v.8 44-56页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 976K]
  

Global

• A Comparative Study of the Two Global Financial Crises

  刘鹤;

  This paper examines the differences and similarities of the two global financial crises to find out the fundamental reasons why these two crises have occurred and what we can learn from these two crises. In 2010, we launched a comparative study on the Great Depression of the 1930 s and today's international financial crisis. This paper is the main summary of the project we have accomplished together. This research draws on the historical event and data to analyze the true reasons behind these two global crises. It concludes that the endogenous conflicts of capitalism, with the inability to self-adjust have caused these crises to take place.

  2013年04期 v.8 58-69页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1639K]
  

• A Global Emissions Trading Scheme?Fantasy and Reality

  谢来辉;

  Many have argued that the international community should establish a global emissions trading scheme(ETS) to reduce emissions and streamline efforts to mitigate climate change. This paper argues against establishing such global ETS for the following reasons:(1) a global ETS may assist developed countries in cutting emissions abatement cost, but it may also result in deterioration in the welfare of developing countries;(2) each nation participating in providing global public goods shall be dedicated to forming "Lindahl equilibrium" under the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, rather than the " Walrasian equilibrium", which is represented in a global ETS;(3) the establishment of a global ETS has its driving forces as it is seen as a preferred regulatory form for industrial special interest groups in developed economies, since its benefits is biased rather than promoting global economic and environmental efficiency; and(4) the developing countries should be more cautious when designing tools of climate policies and need to avoid to be locked in emission trading systems.

  2013年04期 v.8 70-81页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 924K]
  

Domestic

• Location Choice of Industrial Enterprises in China:Market Potential,Resource Endowment and Tax Burden

  叶素云;叶振宇;

  Using a New Economic Geography(NEG) model, this paper investigates the effect of market potential, natural resource endowment and tax burden on the location distribution of industrial enterprises in China. By applying data from 2000 to 2010 of286 Chinese cities, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the location of industrial enterprises of different time periods, regions and ownership systems. The results indicate that greater domestic market potential and international market demand are favorable to fostering or introduction of new enterprises. It also shows that coastal cities with better resource endowment are more attractive to corporate investment, while cities in interior regions have heavy and highly differentiated industrial tax burdens, which is unfavorable to the attraction of enterprises. In comparison, infrastructure and wage of cities have no obvious effect on enterprises' location choice. When it comes to enterprises of different ownership, domestic market potential and international market demand all have significant positive effects on the location distribution of foreign-funded enterprises, private enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, while the level of urban industrial tax burden has an opposite effect. We find that the NEG model has a relatively strong explanatory power to the location of industrial enterprises in China.

  2013年04期 v.8 82-95页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1219K]
  

Industry

• An Empirical Study on Environmental Regulatory Costs &Environmental TFP

  李小胜;安庆贤;

  This paper examines the cost of environmental regulation and the environmental total factor productivity(TFP) with directional distance function and the Malmquist-Luenberger(ML) index respectively, using inputs and output data of 36 two-digit industries over the period 1998-2010. It finds that Chinese industries incur a relatively high environmental regulatory cost and that China has paid a high price fulfilling its promise to emissions mitigation. A comparison between conventional and environmental TFP shows that the two indicators for all industries declined on average, but a hypothesis test reveals insignificant difference between the two. In addition, the rise in environmental TFP is mainly due to technological progress, which is consistent with findings of many researches;analysis demonstrates signs of absolute convergence of environmental TFP.

  2013年04期 v.8 96-108页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 912K]
  

Business

• Pyramidal Structure of Chinese Publicly-Listed Private Firms:Motivations, Correlations and Paths to Governance

  韩忠雪;李维安;

  It is generally believed in academia that there are two theoretical explanations of tunneling and financing advantage for the creation of pyramidal structure. However,there is no definitive conclusion on which explanation holds sway. Based on non-equilibrium panel data of seven years between 2004 and 2010, this empirical study uses the product market competition variables of "inter-sector competition" and "intra-sector competition" and the hierarchy and complexity of pyramidal structure, examines the correlation between pyramidal structure of Chinese private manufacturing listed firms and product market competition and patterns of change, and reveals the major causes of pyramidal structure.Empirical result indicates that, for Chinese private manufacturing listed companies, there is a significant negative correlation between product market competition and the hierarchy and complexity of pyramidal structure, which indicates that the creation of pyramidal structure has a preference on tunneling by controlling shareholders. On the basis of further considerations on corporate tunneling and financing restraint categorization, high-tunneling firms and firms with low financing restraint demonstrate significant tunneling motivations;low-tunneling firms and firms with high financing restraint demonstrate significant effect of financing advantage, which further testifies both theoretical explanations for the creation of pyramidal structure. Conclusions of these studies have not only enriched and supplemented relevant studies on the root causes for the creation of pyramidal structure by Chinese private business groups, but provide practical support for firms to make correct and effective use of pyramidal structure as well.

  2013年04期 v.8 110-123页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 905K]
  

China Data

• China Data

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  2013年04期 v.8 126-127页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1310K]
  

• New-look China Economist for 2013 SUBSCRIBE now!

  <正>China Economist produces a total of six issues per year,published on the 8~(th)of odd months,cover price RMB80(HKD120,USD25)per issue.One-year subscription rate(Print)Chinese Mainland:RMB480Hong Kong:HKD900 including postage Overseas:USD450 including postage(via UPS express)One-year subscription rate(PDF format)USD90

  2013年04期 v.8 124页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 182K]
  

• Supported by Chinese Fund for the Humanities and Social Sciences

  <正>The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly for more than two decades and is forcefully changing the global economic pattern.It seems that the world was ill-prepared for such dramatic changes in China.This has made it even more necessary for China to understand itself and to deepen its knowledge of the rest of the world.In turn,the world also needs to better comprehend China's background and current situation.Thus,it has become an international trend to study China and

  2013年04期 v.8 128页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 447K]
  
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