<正>《中国经济学人》创刊于2006年3月,由中国社会科学院主管,向世界介绍中国经济学和管理学的最新学术进展,发表关于中国经济的原创性学术论文和研究报告。《中国经济学人》已经加入美国经济学会EconLit,EBSCO以及ProQuest学术期刊数据库。
2016年03期 v.11 2页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 700K] - 黄群慧;
According to our analysis of variations in China's industrial growth rate, industrial demand, industrial structure, regional structure and the performance of industrial firms, China's industrial economy is moving towards a "new normal" of slower growth and structural improvement. This process coincides with the late stage of China's industrialization, which international experience suggests is often fraught with twists and challenges. Among these challenges, great attention must be paid to overcapacity, industrial restructuring and upgrades, and the "reindustrialization" of developed countries. As China enters the late stage of its industrialization, particularly during the 13th Five-Year Plan period from 2016 to 2020, the promotion of industrial development is of strategic significance for China to successfully complete industrialization and its economy to adapt to the "new normal". In the face of these new challenges regarding industrial development, policymakers must strive to increase the dynamism of growth for industrial economy. In this new era, the momentum of industrial growth derives from the integration of the supply impetus of industrialization and the pull of demand caused by urbanization, while the comprehensive deepening of reform provides the key source of momentum.
2016年03期 v.11 4-14页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 470K] - 张晓晶;
This paper summarizes the theoretical background and realistic considerations for the emergence of the new normal of macro policy. The characteristics of the new normal of macro policy are as follows: 1) a supply-side approach in response to growth slowdown; 2) understanding economic heterogeneity and growth disequilibrium and paying attention to structural regulation; 3) highlighting strategic planning and broadening the horizon of macro policy; 4) re-establishing a benchmark of macro policy and re-initiating local competition; 5) balancing the interests of various stakeholders and understanding the political economy of macro policy; 6) respecting the spillover effects of major countries and implementing responsible macro policies; 7) respecting "market determinism" and recognizing the limitations of macro policy; and 8) propelling institutional developments and creating a basic framework of macro policy. This paper concludes that the new normal of macro policy is not simply a passive adjustment to the new normal of economy but represents an initiative of proactive response that steers the economy towards a more advanced form. In particular, the following issues should be clarified in current macro policy: some of the characteristics will be corrected or phased out, some that coincide with the new normal will be abreast with the times, and some require that a new trail be explored through innovation of macro policy. These components will constitute the basic framework for China's macro policy to transition towards the new normal.
2016年03期 v.11 15-24页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 349K] - 袁富华;张平;陈昌兵;刘霞辉;王宏淼;
By introducing the knowledge sector, this paper has structurally redefined the production function and on such a basis, analyzed the role of new factor supply in China's economic transition and reached the following conclusions: 1) The supply of new production factors represented by knowledge sector has become the dominant force that decides whether China can overcome the barrier of structural deceleration, and achieve sustained growth and stride into a higher stage of development; 2) In the context of rising urban household income and upgrading demand, the knowledge sector has emerged, encompassing science and technology, culture, health and sports that contribute to enhanced "human capital in the broad sense", and the production and consumption process of the knowledge sector is also the process of human capital improvement and endogenous innovation; 3) Aside from its endogeneity, the knowledge sector creates spillover effects that will revitalize traditional industries and services, remove the barriers between consumption and production, and promote structural transition and economic upgrade for innovationdriven growth; 4) In the context of flagging growth driven by material capital, great importance should be attached to the contribution of consumption to human capital in the broad sense and promote the interactive upgrade of consumption and production structures, which are the key to overcoming the bottlenecks of development.
2016年03期 v.11 25-38页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 794K] - 杨蕙馨;王海兵;
Using China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS) data between 1989 and 2011, this paper measures the returns to education in China based on the Mincer earnings function and reaches the following findings through an analysis of the tendency of continuous variations over a long timeframe: returns to education are on the rise within the range of samples both under relative and absolute scenarios; returns to different levels of education are characterized by increasing marginal return; no significant difference exists between the returns to junior middle school and the returns to primary school education. Further discussions consider that the requirements of job positions for the overall competence of personnel, differentiated decline of corporate demand for recruitment, lack of an evaluation system in the labor market, information asymmetry in the job market, the development strategy adopted in a particular stage of history and the current slow progress of economic transition have jointly led to the underemployment of college graduates and the great enthusiasm of parents investing in higher education for their children. Conclusions of this paper not only have important practical relevance to the ongoing implementation of China's innovation-driven development strategy, but offer inspirations for the new round of educational reform as well.
2016年03期 v.11 39-53页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 558K] - 岳希明;蔡萌;
High incomes in state monopoly industries have drawn extensive public concerns in China. The management of state-owned enterprises(SOEs) is motivated and empowered to set payment schemes in their own favor, resulting in the greater extent to which their senior executives are overpaid as compared with average workers. Hence, the level of unjustified high incomes is heterogeneous among employees of different income levels in state monopoly industries. Using Machado-Mata counterfactual decomposition method based on the regression of multiple quantiles, this paper measures the proportions of reasonable and unreasonable parts of pay gap between state monopoly industries and competitive industries. Our study found that the workforce of state monopoly industries are overpaid across various wage levels, while the extent to which they are overpaid increases with the rise of wage level. The implication is that compared with average workers, executives in state monopoly industries are overpaid to an even greater extent. This requires that the government focus on curbing the high executive income in addition to putting a lid on the gross payroll of SOEs in state monopoly industries. The fundamental strategy to resolving the excessive high income in state monopoly industries is to bring different types of SOEs under different corporate management models and income systems.
2016年03期 v.11 54-63页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 451K] - 何德旭;苗文龙;
Inclusive finance is intended to address the barriers posed by financial exclusion to economic development. Therefore, an effective inclusive financial system must be designed to address financial exclusion rather than to provide long-term policy subsidies for financial relief. Financial exclusion in China has causes in economic development strategy, financial institutional arrangement, financial market structure, dominance of social relations, and constraints of risk evaluation. Eliminating financial exclusion and increasing financial inclusion essentially requires that our financial system be equipped with those functions through policy adjustment, institutional innovation and improvement of market rules. Existing bottlenecks of financial risk management should be eliminated to provide fair opportunities of financing for projects that contribute to social development with limited deviations from traditional credit costs. Inclusive finance is sometimes confused with policy subsidies, financial assistance and poverty relief loans, which cannot reflect efficiency, fairness and inclusion as the essential attributes of inclusive finance. The existing financial system must be adjusted to enhance risk management performance and advance financial market stratification and competition by creating fair and efficient legal and credit systems.
2016年03期 v.11 64-76页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 489K] - 丁剑平;向坚;蔚立柱;
The special drawing rights(SDR) must have stability and representation in order to serve as reserve assets and the unit of account for bulk commodities and assume the function as a potential international currency. By introducing such factors as China's share in global trade volume in 2013, this paper found that the covariance between the SDR and the price fluctuations of major commodities is the smallest after Renminbi inclusion into the SDR. The covariance is more or less halved compared with the SDR without Renminbi. Then, based on our comparison of volatility in the effective exchange rates(EER) of various countries(extensively used) and the volatility in the SDR exchange rate(seldom used), we found that despite similar trend curves, the SDR's volatility can explain for a very small part of the volatility in effective exchange rate. The residual error indicates that the share of SDR is limited in the volatility of effective exchange rates of various countries on the one hand and suggests that it is urgent to expand the SDR to include representative currencies, particularly the currencies that represent significant weights of world trade. Relevant tests demonstrate that Renminbi inclusion into the SDR will not only enlarge the stability of SDR but enlarge its function as an index currency through the extension of SDR's function as the unit of account for major world commodities and the inclusion of the currencies of other major trading nations, so that the representation as the global unit of account will be enlarged. In addition, the inclusion into the SDR also helps Renminbi become a component of the international reserve currencies and supplement its liquidity supply.
2016年03期 v.11 77-90页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1600K] - 孔艳芳;
This paper investigates the gap of demographic urbanization arising from the difference between rural residents who have migrated to cities and those who have acquired urban citizenship in the process of China's urbanization. The skyrocketing house prices and insufficient household consumption power are key factors to the widening gap, which had reached 18% in 2013. In order to explore this issue, by creating the basic model and the model with interaction term, this paper has analyzed the relationship among house prices, consumption power and gap of urbanization using the data of 31 provinces between 1999 and 2013 in China. Empirical result indicates that: there is a positive correlation between the house prices and the gap of China's demographic urbanization. However, such a correlation is restrained by these rural migrants who rent houses in cities. For an increase of house price by 1%, the gap of urbanization will widen by 1.05%. Although rising urban consumption power of rural residents has increased the ratio of migration, the lagged growth of consumption power has led to a widening gap of urbanization. Therefore, the only way to effectively reduce the gap of demographic urbanization is to increase the consumption power of migrant population and optimize consumption structure.
2016年03期 v.11 91-105页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 956K] - 李钢;马丽梅;
It is the view of this paper that both market and non-market mechanisms can stimulate corporate innovation and have their respective areas of application. As a major developing country, China should create a national innovation policy system to coordinate these incentives in order to promote economic transition and upgrade through corporate innovation. Innovation policies are determined by a country's technology level. The premise for most advanced economies to follow market-based incentives is a foundation of early-stage non-market policies, as their governments frequently resorted to non-market means such as state-owned enterprises in the early stage of development. This paper also concludes that technological uncertainty can well describe the technological characteristics of industries. For industries with less technological uncertainty, non-market means are more likely to succeed. Lastly, this paper employs the dimensions of both technology level and industrial technology characteristics for a quantitative analysis on the scope of industries to which the two incentive mechanisms are applicable, divides them into quadrants in order to discuss the boundary between market-based and non-market incentives, and explore ways to achieve effective interplay between government and market.
2016年03期 v.11 106-125页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 503K] <正>China Industrial Economics(CIE)is a national academic monthly journal sponsored by the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Committed to exploring theories and facilitating their application,CIE was founded with the mission to publish the latest research results of industrial economics and business administration.It serves as a window for international scholars and managers to keep
2016年03期 v.11 128-129页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 803K] - Li Yang;Jin Bei;
<正>The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly for more than two decades and is forcefully changing the global economic pattern.It seems that the world was ill-prepared for such dramatic changes in China.This has made it even more necessary for China to understand itself and to deepen its knowledge of the rest of the world.In turn,the world also needs to better comprehend China’s background and current
2016年03期 v.11 130页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 272K] 下载本期数据