- 史丹;张成;
Using China's two-digit manufacturing sectors as samples, this paper first analyzes China's output structure optimization objectives and energy conservation and emissions abatement potentials in 2015, then examines various factor inputs' matching, and estimates their capacity utilization status, focusing on capital stock factor. Results of our study suggest that:(1) China's manufacturing output structure has great potentials of optimization to reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity by 18.08% and 17.42% respectively over the original values;(2) to reduce factor mismatch, various supporting input factors need to be introduced after manufacturing output structure optimization. The level of capital stock, in particular, requires a substantial change;(3) China's manufacturing capacity utilization(56.14%) in 2015 was far below its average level(73.27%) in the mid and late stage of the 11 th Five-Year Plan period(2008-2010). The low capacity utilization was attributable to economic slowdown and investment inertia. After input factor matching, capacity utilization may rise to the latter level.
2018年06期 v.13 2-16页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 500K] - 施震凯;邵军;浦正宁;
Improvement of transportation infrastructure quality will lead to more sufficient market competition and promote the flow of resources with greater efficiency. This paper considers China's railway speed-up in 2007 as a quasi-natural experiment on China's transportation infrastructure quality improvement. With the initial operation of electric multiple units(EMUs) as the basis of grouping, this research examines the effect of railway speed-up on corporate total factor productivity(TFP) growth by the differencein-differences(DID) method. Overally, the results reveal positive effects both on firms' technological change and efficiency improvement, which lead to the increase of TFP. Based on subsamples divided by different regions and types of enterprises, further analysis indicates that the productivity of exporter, non-state and coastal firms has been mostly affected by the railway speed-up. These conclusions are verified by a placebo test. Besides, firms within "one-hour economic circle" have been shown more sensitive to the effect of railway speed increase.
2018年06期 v.13 17-33页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 468K] - 孙德刚;
China has developed a new chain of commercial seaports along the Maritime Silk Road. These ports are unlike those used by overseas military bases of the United States. While the former focuses on the economic development of China and other involved countries through investment, trade, infrastructure construction and international shipping center development, the latter is at the service of the U.S. security strategy underpinned by goals to strengthen alliances, fight terrorism, expand influence and support proxies. China has gained extensive experience from its seaport reform. Opening-up programs like the "Shekou model" promote business opportunities in addition to the essential services, and define the port area as the "frontier", the industrial park as the "middle ground", and the port city as the "backyard". Based on such experience, China is ready to contribute to the development, peace and stability of emerging countries along the Maritime Silk Road and explore seaport diplomacy with Chinese resilience, diligence and foresight. China's seaport diplomacy is market-oriented and involves companies as key players. It is also supported by government coordination. Seaport diplomacy has increased connectivity and interdependence between countries and regions along the Maritime Silk Road, and helps avoid the "zero-sum game" and the "core-peripheral" asymmetrical relationship of dependence. China's participation in the development of seaports along the Maritime Silk Road has facilitated the industrialization process of the countries involved and benefited local communities. This approach stands in sharp contrast to the maritime militarization and democratization pursued by some Western countries. Nevertheless, China's participation in the development of seaports along the Maritime Silk Road also faces economic, legal, political, and security risks. Thus, caution should be given to the tendency to politicize China's seaport development.
2018年06期 v.13 34-48页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 385K] - 李春顶;郭志芳;何传添;
As part of its further opening-up initiatives for the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020), China will accelerate the implementation of free trade agreement strategies and create free trade area networks with high standards-in which the development of mega-regional trade agreements(mega-RTAs) is a key component. This paper creates a large global general equilibrium numerical model system comprising 29 economies, and precisely models the free trade agreements' effects based on the progress of ongoing regional trade agreement negotiations. Then, a counterfactual simulation method is employed to quantitatively evaluate and compare the potential economic effects of China's existing large regional trade agreement negotiations. Simulated results lead to the following findings:(1) All these free trade agreements will increase China's welfare, output, employment and trade. Among them, the trade effect is the strongest, followed by output and employment effects, and welfare effect is relatively small.(2) Other members out of the free trade agreements all benefit. In comparison, smaller and more export-dependent economies benefit more, while China will dominate the negotiations given its comparative gains and contributions.
2018年06期 v.13 49-61页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 425K] - 倪红福;
Under the global value chain, a country extensively employs foreign intermediate inputs in manufacturing its export products, which may not employ entirely local technology. Science-based measurement of technology content in and structure of exports should be conducted using production process data. Using world input-output tables(WIOTs) of 1995-2011, this paper developed a new method for measuring the export technology content of China and other major countries. Our research findings suggest that, since 1995, there has been some technology upgrade of Chinese exports. China's overall and sector-specific technology contents, and domestic technology contents and indexes all increased and demonstrated a weak convergence towards the average level of developed countries. Judging by the relative rankings of sector-specific technology levels, China is almost locked at the lowest level in the world, and cannot challenge the technological superiority of developed countries like the U.S. and Japan.
2018年06期 v.13 62-75页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 493K] - 熊爱宗;
Providing high-quality economic forecasts is an important responsibility of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) in maintaining world financial and economic stability. However, errors are inevitable in IMF economic forecasts for its member countries. Based on forecast method and information, and political factor, this paper creates a political economics framework for analyzing the IMF's forecast errors, and tests the effects of various factors on the IMF's forecasts using the panel data analysis method. According to our findings, if a country receives IMF loans and shares a similar vote with the United States at the UN General Assembly, it will more likely receive an optimistic forecast by the IMF. Meanwhile, member countries' data availability and IMF forecast errors for major economies may also affect forecast on a country. Therefore, this paper proposes recommendations on further improving the IMF's forecast quality by creating more independent forecast procedures and enhancing forecast data quality and forecast accuracy.
2018年06期 v.13 76-88页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 516K] -
<正>Chinese Social Science Digest (CSSD), started in 2000, is a Chinese journal published by Social Sciences in China Press under the administration of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The journal publishes a significant number of high quality research articles excerpted from a variety of humanities and social sciences journals. Its
2018年06期 v.13 89页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 546K] - 李昕;关会娟;
By introducing a general equilibrium framework to China's dual economic structure, this paper studies the microscopic mechanism of education input to narrow the urban-rural income gap and how to improve the allocation efficiency of education funds in China's "new normal" economy. The empirical analysis results show that education input is effective in narrowing the urban-rural income gap and achieving a Pareto improvement state in both direct and indirect ways. However, the effect of education input at different stages varies. In particular, the impact of compulsory education on improving inequality is more significant than the other education levels. With adjustment for the macroeconomic slowdown, raising fiscal expenditures on education can improve potential economic growth by promoting human capital accumulation and labor productivity in the long run. In all, education input can promote labor migration and narrow the urban-rural income gap, which is conducive to alleviating the contradiction of the structural transformation lag in employment and achieving inclusive growth targets.
2018年06期 v.13 90-105页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 704K] - 李文贵;余明桂;钟慧洁;
Since June 2004, the State-Owned Assets Supervision & Administration Commission(SASAC) has launched pilot programs for a board of directors(BoD) for central SOEs to establish and improve their governance structure and standardize their exercise of shareholder rights over state-owned listed companies. Based on this quasinatural experiment, this paper examines the BoD's effects on the agency cost of state-owned listed companies and their economic consequences. Using data of central SOE-controlled companies listed at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during 2002-2015, this paper finds that the pilot programs significantly reduced the two types of agency costs for the companies, and such effects primarily existed for listed companies with smaller central SOE shareholding ratios. Further test uncovers that, compared with central SOEs that did not carry out the pilot programs, those that did reported higher economic value-added and stock returns. Our conclusions offer a new interpretation of the BoD's governance effects from a controlling shareholder's perspective, and provide empirical evidence for the positive effects of the pilot programs for central SOE boards of directors. These findings have important policy implications for deepening SOE governance reforms.
2018年06期 v.13 106-120页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 440K] <正>Social Sciences in China is a peer-reviewed Quarterly academic journal published since 1980 by the Social Science in China Press on behalf of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. It is the foremost English journal focusing on recent important developments across the breadth of social sciences and humanities in China.
2018年06期 v.13 121页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 481K] -
<正>《中国工业经济》,原名《中国工业经济学报》,1984年由著名经济学家蒋一苇创办。现为中国社会科学院主管、中国社会科学院工业经济研究所主办,是全国产业经济、企业管理领域的权威学术期刊。本刊大16开本,160页整,整个设计简洁、大气、厚重。创刊以来,《中国工业经济》本着"理论项天,实践立地"的理念刊发论文,选题具有前瞻性,内容
2018年06期 v.13 125页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 560K] 下载本期数据