- 许宪春;郑正喜;张钟文;
The principal contradiction facing the Chinese society has evolved to be that between imbalanced and inadequate development and the people's ever-growing needs for a better life. Given China's vision for achieving moderate prosperity, it is relevant to conduct theoretical and empirical studies on the nation's development imbalances. As a quantitative index, the Tsinghua China Balanced Development Index measures the extent to which development is uneven and insufficient across regions, reflecting the progress and shortfalls in China's efforts to promote balanced development. Our findings provide implications for how policymakers may help people's expectations for a better life materialize by spurring balanced economic, social, environmental and livelihood development across regions.
2020年03期 v.15 2-17页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 430K] - 管涛;王霄彤;
Recent years have seen sharp increases in China's trade deficit in services, especially in tourism, arousing concerns over a potential capital flight from China. Such concerns appeared to be justified by China's balance of payments data, whose statistical scope was officially modified retroactively since 2014. To overcome the impact of changing statistical approach, this paper uses banks' cross-border customer payment and receipt data to re-estimate China's service trade, and finds that China's service imports did not increase abnormally from 2014 to 2016 as some researchers reckoned. With the re-estimated service trade data, we find that the relationship between China's GDP per capita and travel imports as a share of service imports since 2001 tallies with those of emerging Asian industrial countries before the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, indicating that China's travel import growth in recent years did not deviate from the long term trend and international experience. Furthermore, this paper finds that China's travel imports did not significantly influence the stock and housing markets in the US, Hong Kong and the EU as major travel destinations, thus refuting the argument that massive capital has fled China for overseas markets.
2020年03期 v.15 18-27页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 368K] - 倪鹏飞;Marco Kamiya;李博;刘笑男;李启航;
Common prosperity, an important goal of human development, increasingly has to be achieved through the common prosperity of cities. The research into and discovery of the determinants which create differences in urban economic competitiveness is of great significance as, thereby, the research and expected discovery can help with the formulation of relevant policies for development, competition, and cooperation to promote win-win conditions among cities. However, such research is still rare. Based on the economic competitiveness data of 1,007 cities, this paper uses OLS regression and Shapley-value based decompositions regression to analyze factors affecting the economic competitiveness of global cities and differences that the cities made. Combined with quantile regression, studying the law of changing of each factor's effect on cities with different levels of economic competitiveness is of theoretical and practical significance. The study findings are as follows.(1) The variability of global urban economic competitiveness is quite large. Cities in North America and Europe are still the benchmarks of global urban economic prosperity.(2) Financial services, technological innovation, industrial system, business environment, institutional environment, infrastructure, among other factors, have significant impacts on the economic competitiveness of cities.(3) The primary factor that influenced the variability in economic competitiveness is technological innovation.(4) The ranking of the main influencing factors varied slightly between cities at different levels of economic competitiveness. These indicate that the international community should promote innovation in and diffusion of science and technology to achieve common prosperity by narrowing the gap between cities. The relevant decision-making departments, e.g. urban planning departments with strong economic and finance expertise of the cities in different development zones should adopt different measures in accordance with their actual situations.
2020年03期 v.15 28-48页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 581K] - 黄征学;高国力;滕飞;潘彪;宋建军;李爱民;
Poverty reduction is an eternal theme in the modernization drive of countries. After 2020, China's poverty reduction endeavors will face new challenges and shift towards:(i) elevating poverty standards,(ii) placing equal emphasis on rural and urban poverty,(iii) preventing people in the deeply poor regions from slipping back to poverty,(iv) combining external assistance with endogenous development, and(v) enhancing social protection and targeted fiscal support for aiding the poor. Following the new trends of poverty reduction, policymakers should update their strategic approach, adopt new poverty reduction standards, target at a broader group of poor groups, promote pro-poor development, and improve poverty governance. Lastly, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations for reducing poverty in China post-2020:(i) maintaining policy continuity and stability during the transition period;(ii) creating regular poverty relief mechanisms for urban and rural residents;(iii) improving the targeted identification and dynamic adjustment of target groups for poverty reduction; and(iv) reducing poverty through social protection and development.
2020年03期 v.15 50-60页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 695K] - 孙久文;夏添;
China is about to eliminate absolute poverty in 2020 in favor of relative poverty. The Gini coefficient reflects a distorted picture of relative poverty in China, which is prominent and overlaps with absolute poverty. This paper reviews China's moving poverty line and pro-poor policies in various stages. It then estimates the scale of rural relative poverty in the context of urban and rural divide, and lastly, it proposes that, beyond 2020, China should follow a two-region and two-stage approach in setting the relative poverty line. Coastal regions should adopt a relative poverty line based on household disposable income, interior regions should convert the absolute poverty line into relative poverty line. After 2035, China is expected to enter late-stage urbanization, and the relative poverty standard will be based on national disposable income. Future poverty governance should continue to focus on capacity training, regional transition, and multi-dimensional poverty identification.
2020年03期 v.15 62-75页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 406K] - 申云;李庆海;杨晶;
Agricultural supply chain finance(SCF) plays a vital role in reducing poverty and linking smallholders with broader markets. By creating a multi-dimensional poverty index(MPI) for farmer households with A-F binary boundary method, this paper employs the propensity score matching and difference-in-difference(PSM-DID) method to estimate how farmers' cooperatives run by various entities affect farmer households' multidimensional poverty status. Our findings suggest that:(i) Each percentage of increase in the probability of farmers' access to SCF credit from their cooperatives makes it 8% and 10% more likely for farmers' MPI and multi-dimensional poverty order to decrease with a significant poverty-reducing effect.(2) SCF credit from farmers' cooperatives run by large farmers, agribusinesses and the village cadres are significantly poverty-reducing for fulltime poor farmers.(iii) The higher non-farm incomes as a share of farmers' total income, the less poverty-reducing SCF credit from farmers' cooperatives run by large farmers and villagers becomes, and the more poverty-reducing SCF credit for agribusiness everyone cooperatives becomes. These findings highlight the importance of policy guidance for farmers' cooperatives to offer appropriate credit products and solutions according to local conditions, which is vital to maximizing the effects of targeted financial poverty reduction.
2020年03期 v.15 76-91页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 477K] - 张勋;万广华;张佳佳;何宗樾;
This paper represents an early attempt to investigate whether digital finance driven by the internet revolution helps promote inclusive growth in China. We match the Index of Digital Financial Inclusion, which measures digital finance development in China, with data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), which provide representative household survey data in China. Firstly, based on sub-sample empirical analysis, we find that digital finance has helped increase household income, especially rural household income, in China. Thus, digital finance is conducive to inclusive growth in China by narrowing regional and urban-rural gaps. Secondly, we examine how digital finance spurs inclusive growth in China by bringing rural households equal access to entrepreneurship opportunities. Lastly, we uncover how digital finance interacts with physical capital and social capital in promoting entrepreneurship, concluding that households with less physical or social capital had benefited more, which is also conducive to inclusive growth.
2020年03期 v.15 92-105页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 389K] - 王瑜;
Sense of economic gain of e-commerce participation is an important aspect for evaluating the inclusiveness of e-commerce development. Based on the data of 6,242 rural households collected from the 2017 summer surveys conducted by the China Institute for Rural Studies(CIRS), Tsinghua University, this paper evaluates the effects of e-commerce participation on rural households' sense of economic gain with the propensity score matching(PSM) method, and carries out grouped comparisons between poor and nonpoor households. Specifically, the "Self-evaluated income level relative to fellow villagers" measures respondents' sense of economic gain in the relative sense, and "Percentage of expected household income growth(reduction) in 2018 over 2017" measures future income growth expectation. Findings suggest that e-commerce participation significantly increased sample households' sense of economic gain relative to their fellow villagers and their future income growth expectation. Yet grouped comparisons offer different conclusions: E-commerce participation increased poor households' sense of economic gain compared with fellow villagers more than it did for non-poor households. E-commerce participation did little to increase poor households' future income growth expectation. Like many other poverty reduction programs, pro-poor e-commerce helps poor households with policy preferences but have yet to help them foster skills to prosper in the long run. The sustainability and quality of perceived relative economic gain for poor households are yet to be further observed and examined. All poverty reduction initiatives including pro-poor e-commerce must help poor households develop endogenous growth momentum to prosper beyond the effects of short-term pro-poor policies.
2020年03期 v.15 106-119页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 378K] -
<正>《中国经济学人》创刊于2006年3月,由中国社会科学院经济学部业务主管,工业经济研究所主办,经济管理出版社制作发行,代表中国人文社会科学英文刊最高水平,致力于向世界介绍中国经济学和管理学的最新学术进展。于2010年加入美国经济学会EconLit全文索引系统,并已加入EBSCO、ProQuest等全球顶级学术数据库。
2020年03期 v.15 120-121页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 345K] <正>China Industrial Economics (CIE) is a national academic monthly journal sponsored by the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Committed to exploring theories and facilitating their application,CIE was founded with the mission to publish the latest research results of industrial economics and business administration.It serves as a window for international scholars and managers to keep updated about China's industrial economics and business administration.
2020年03期 v.15 124页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 317K] -
<正>《中国工业经济》,原名《中国工业经济学报》,1984年由著名经济学家蒋一苇创办。现为中国社会科学院主管、中国社会科学院工业经济研究所主办,是全国产业经济、企业管理领域的权威学术期刊。本刊大16开本,160页整,整个设计简洁、大气、厚重。创刊以来,《中国工业经济》本着"理论顶天,实践立地"的理念刊发论文,选题具有前瞻性,内容具有原创性,论证具有严谨性,结论具有实用性,其最大特色是:①思想和方法融为一体。本刊坚决抵制
2020年03期 v.15 125页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 707K] 下载本期数据