- 魏后凯;
The 14~(th) Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025) is a critical transition for China's social and economic development. After achieving moderate prosperity and eradicating absolute poverty in 2020, China will embark upon a new journey towards an affluent society with rural revitalization replacing poverty eradication as a new priority of government agenda on agriculture and rural affairs. In the 14~(th) FYP period, China should increase rural prosperity in all respects, modernize agriculture and the countryside, address food security challenges, raise farmers' incomes, and roll out rural reforms.
2022年01期 v.17 2-11页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 365K] - 吕越;
This paper employs relatively more detailed and accurate data currently available from the Global Corporate Greenfield Investments Database 2005-2016 for an all-round analysis of the investment effects of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) based on the difference-in-differences(DID) model as an effective identification method for event evaluation. Our findings suggest that the BRI has sharply increased growth in outbound greenfield investments by Chinese companies and led to an increase in the number of investment projects in BRI countries by around 32%. A series of validity and robustness tests has demonstrated the existence of such positive effects. The BRI has facilitated greenfield investments by Chinese companies through "five links," i.e. infrastructure interconnection,policy communication, financial intermediation, trade, and people-to-people exchanges.Our heterogeneity analysis found that geographically, the BRI has played a more significant role in facilitating investment growth in the Maritime Silk Road countries and China's neighboring countries involved in the BRI, and no significantly positive effect exists for investment in economies with high political risks. From a dynamic perspective, the BRI stimulates investment by expanding the intensive margins, i.e. spurring investment growth in existing investment projects or economies home to those projects. Judging by the results of the difference-in-differences-in-differences(DDD) model, the BRI's positive effects on outbound investment are focused on infrastructure sectors such as energy, transportation and communication. In terms of the sources of investment, the BRI did not create any significant investment promotion effect for key Chinese provinces involved in the BRI.
2022年01期 v.17 12-23页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 381K] - 杨沫;王岩;
Based on ten rounds of CHNS data from 1989 to 2015, this paper employed dual measurement indicators of the intergenerational elasticity(IGE) of earnings and the income rank association(IRA) coefficient to measure intergenerational income mobility in China. Our findings suggest that China's intergenerational income mobility was relatively stable from 1991-2004 and started to increase after 2004. Our study based on income grouping found that the intergenerational income immobility decreased after 2004 for all income groups; however, the high-income and low-income groups were far more immobile than other income groups; the middle-income group served as a key driver of the relatively high intergenerational income mobility in China. Furthermore,we investigated China's intergenerational income transmission mechanism with a human capital analysis framework. We found that fathers' non-education factors played a dominant role in intergenerational income transmission; under the effects of the social institutional environment, the non-education transmission mechanism started to diminish after 2004,significantly contributing to intergenerational income mobility.
2022年01期 v.17 24-39页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 463K] - 闫坤;鲍曙光;
In the context of national governance, public finance is embedded into China's economic, political, and social systems as a medium between various national subsystems.As such, fiscal sustainable development should be viewed from a systematic and integrated perspective. This paper created an analytical framework consisting of three aspects: fiscal resource adequacy, institutional soundness and effectiveness, and external shocks. Chinese government has a relatively healthy balance sheet with adequate fiscal resources; however,it is faced with implicit debt risks and inefficiencies. China has initially established a basic fiscal framework with Chinese characteristics that are compatible with national governance,but problems remain in terms of fiscal responsibility, lawfulness, efficiency, fairness, and compatibility. When dealing with external shocks, policymakers should establish a clear fiscal policy rationale and approach based on the implications of fiscal sustainability. Fiscal sustainable development requires the strengthening of government capabilities to assess management and operation; thus, expanding available fiscal resources. Fiscal reforms should be expedited in order to create a modern fiscal system. Furthermore, a fiscal policy system should be developed and optimized according to the principles of fiscal sustainability in order to withstand external shocks.
2022年01期 v.17 40-51页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 342K] - 吴要武;
Soon after its founding in 1949, the People's Republic of China established an all-round planned economic system, abolished the labor market, put labor authorities in charge of urban employment planning and placements, and assigned rural workforce as members of the People's Communes. This planned labor system lasted until the reform and opening up program was launched in 1978. In the face of great employment pressures as educated youth returned from the countryside to cities, the government took a series of policies to bring the educated youth into the workforce through referral by labor authorities, voluntarily organized employment, and self-employment. With the abolition of the centralized job placement system, China's labor market started to develop, giving play to the comparative advantage of abundant labor force, and the dual economic structure started to integrate. After decades of rapid growth and job creation, China's labor market have turned from oversupply to undersupply since 2003, and labor remuneration increased sharply. China's changing resource endowment structure was accompanied by a shift in its labor market policy from employment to the labor market. Over the past four decades of reform and opening up, the Chinese government enacted wise labor market policies in each critical stage.
2022年01期 v.17 52-69页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 375K] - 刘志彪;凌永辉;
In this paper, we performed an empirical study on the TFP effect of structural transformation based on panel data of economic growth in 169 countries across the world.Our findings are threefold: First, structural transformation has an inverted U-shaped effect on TFP. When the degree of structural transformation is on the left side of the inflection point, structural transformation is conducive to softening industrial structure and inducing TFP; when the degree of structural transformation is on the right side of the inflection point, structural transformation will induce industrial hollowing out and inhibit TFP.Second, since the reform and opening up program was launched in 1978, China's structural transformation has evolved from the stage of adaptation to the stage of strategic adjustment with an increasingly evident trend towards a service-based economy, but structural transformation remains on the left side of the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve, i.e. the TFP effect of structural transformation is positive. Third, TFP improvement lies at the heart of high-quality development. In pursuing high-quality development, China should lower growth rate expectations, attach greater importance to supply-side structural reforms, and accelerate structural transformation to promote TFP improvement.
2022年01期 v.17 70-82页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 691K] - 何德旭;苗文龙;
Improvement of the macroeconomic governance system as an important part of the national governance system is a key initiative to address major economic problems in the new era. The coordination and economic regulatory effects of fiscal and monetary policies are subject to the arrangements of fiscal and financial decentralization systems.Analysis revealed a mismatch between China's fiscal income decentralization and fiscal spending decentralization, as manifested in the clear decentralization of fiscal revenue and vague decentralization of fiscal spending; in pursuing local economic stability,local governments seek other sources of revenue and compete for financial resources, as manifested in apparent financial centralization and implicit financial decentralization,causing financial decentralization to be inconsistent between various levels of government and between government and the market. The above-mentioned problems are reflected in mutual conversion between public finance and financial intermediation as two financial allocation methods and mutual transmission between fiscal and financial risks, making the case for enhancing coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. In creating a scientific macroeconomic governance system, therefore, we must establish clear local government responsibilities, reduce the proportion of local fiscal spending, clarify the orientations and relief boundary of fiscal and monetary policies, moderately decentralize financial powers, and give better play to the role of local governments in improving the quality of economic development and controlling major risks.
2022年01期 v.17 84-105页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 711K] - 郑晓冬;上官霜月;陈典;方向明;
China's anti-poverty strategy in the post-2020 era will focus on reducing chronic poverty and alleviating relative poverty. As a common international approach for long-term multidimensional poverty reduction, conditional cash transfer(CCT)payments reduce current poverty, prevent future poverty, and improve income distribution by providing poor households with cash allowances and promoting children's human capital accumulation. For such reasons, CCT serves as an anti-poverty policy instrument worth referencing for China. This paper systematically reviewed the theoretical basis and development journey of CCT, the short-term and long-term implementation effects, as well as the decision-making basis, design and potential limitations. In this paper, we have further analyzed the poverty-reducing effects and problems of China's rural public transfer payment policies in the current stage and discussed the achievements and inadequacies of China's ongoing CCT pilot programs. Results indicate that the further development of CCT in China calls for a combination top-down and bottom-up policy-making approaches in project design and implementation, as well as an evolving poverty governance system complementary with other relevant policies.
2022年01期 v.17 106-120页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 408K] - 宋锦;李实;王德文;
After China eradicated absolute poverty in 2020, the problems of relative poverty and urban poverty will draw more attention. Social protection system in urban areas lays the groundwork for economic transition and social stability. The targeting accuracy of urban minimum livelihood guarantee(Dibao) system is the key to the success of the system. After analyzing urban Dibao's targeting practice and performance with household survey data, this study found that the issuance of Dibao payments took account of household income, assets and demographic characteristics to ensure minimum livelihood guarantee and meet recipients' urgent needs. This practice is of great importance during China's economic transition. Under the multidimensional review mechanism, the exclusion error of urban Dibao is in the range of 38.45% and 66.28%, and the inclusion error is between 54.59% and 69.17%. By 2013, Dibao's targeting efficiency improved significantly over 2007. In evaluating Dibao's targeting efficiency, it is more appropriate to adopt multidimensional criteria instead of income alone. Multidimensional evaluation is also of great importance for evaluating Dibao's targeting policy.
2022年01期 v.17 121-133页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 391K] <正>China Economist(中文刊名:《中国经济学人》)是由中国社会科学院主管、中国社会科学院工业经济研究所主办的面向全球发行的中英文学术期刊。China Economist创刊于2006年3月,始终致力于向全球传递中国经济学与管理学最前沿研究进展,搭建中外学者相互交流的学术平台和研究阵地;先后被EconLit、EBSCO、ProQuest、SCOPUS等全球主流、权威数据库及索引系统收录,入选中国社会科学院中国人文社会科学期刊(AMI)英文核心期刊,是代表中国人文社会科学英文刊最高水平的期刊之一。
2022年01期 v.17 136页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 190K] -
<正>Founded in 1984 by renowned economists Ma Hong and Jiang Yiwei, Economy & Management Publishing House is a central-level publishing house led by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS) and sponsored by Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS. Since its establishment, Economy & Management Publishing House has undertaken the mission of cultural inheritance, and has always given top priority to social benefits.
2022年01期 v.17 137页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 226K] <正>The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly for more than two decades and is forcefully changing the global economic pattern.It seems that the world was ill-prepared for such dramatic changes in China.This has made it even more necessary for China to understand itself and to deepen its knowledge of the rest of the world.In turn,the world also needs to better comprehend China's background and currentsituation.
2022年01期 v.17 138页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 437K]