- 谭小芬;曹倩倩;赵茜;
Based on the global asset portfolio model, this paper created a panel threshold modelusingEPFRfunddatatoempiricallytestthenon-linearspillovereffectsofUS economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies. Our study led to the following findings:(1) When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high, rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies, as manifested in the “portfolio rebalancing effect.” When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold, this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow, i.e. the “flight to quality effect”.(2) Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3) According to our heterogeneity analysis, more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds, ETF funds, and retail investor funds. The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.
2022年05期 v.17 2-18页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 423K] - 万攀兵;杨冕;陈林;
Distinct from the existing literature conforming to the Porter hypothesis which emphasizes the technological innovation mechanism, this paper examines the mechanism of technological transformation through which environmental technical standards influence the manufacturing industry in reducing emissions and improving efficiency(i.e. green transition). Furthermore, drawing upon enterprise samples from the databases of Chinese Industrial Enterprises and Chinese Industrial Pollution Sources from Major Monitored Enterprises, it empirically validates the results of the theoretical analysis. Overall, our research reveals that environmental technical standards can propel manufacturing enterprises to reduce pollution and increase productivity by following an incremental path of technological transformation, thereby achieving a green transition. Moreover,environmental technical standards indirectly promote green technology innovation in the upstream equipment manufacturing enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that environmental technical standards have a stronger effect of green transition on those companies with higher pollution emission intensity, lower productivity, slower capital renewal and stronger financing capacity prior to implementing the environmental policies.
2022年05期 v.17 19-40页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 564K] - 袁礼;王林辉;欧阳峣;
Based on the endogenous technology progress framework for late-moving large countries, this paper simulates the effects of market size on technology progress path and technology catch-up, and finds that under the strategy of combining innovation with imitation, the increase of market size will restrain the convergence of economies towards technology frontier and deepen their reliance on imitation. Under the strategy of replacing imitation with innovation, there is a non-uniform U-shaped threshold effect for market size to influence technology progress path and catch-up, and the threshold for the shift of technology progress path lags behind that for technology catch-up. Hence, we should follow technology catch-up as the benchmark and timely adjust our innovation strategy to unleash the advantages of economies of scale for innovation. The innovation-driven development strategy is a choice compatible with China's changing market size. However, since China remains in a transition from a super-large economy to a super-strong one, the contribution of innovation will decrease at first before increasing afterwards.
2022年05期 v.17 41-64页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 626K] - 杨天宇;朱光;
Cash flow statements suggest that China's rising labor remuneration has had a major impact on its national savings rate since 2008. Accordingly, this paper proposes labor remuneration hypotheses to explain the evolving trend of China's national savings rate. We hypothesize that:(1) The certainty and predictability of household labor remuneration have led to excess sensitivity to consumption, with a corresponding decrease in the household savings rate;(2) rising household labor remuneration means a greater share of labor remuneration is paid by firms, resulting in a smaller corporate savings rate;(3) the increase in the payment of labor remuneration by firms as a share of national disposable income has resulted in the government spending more on social welfare and public services resulting in the government having a declining share of disposable income, less propensity to save, and a falling government savings rate. Using China's provincial panel data of 2008-2016, we performed an empirical test with the minimum wage standard as the instrumental variable to verify the above hypothesis. To cope with economic growth pressures, China needs to shift from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven growth model and prioritize investment efficiency over quantity.
2022年05期 v.17 65-77页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 351K] - 戴翔;宋婕;
To promote the reconstruction and optimization of the global value chains(GVCs), it is essential to tackle the prominent contradictions and problems including inequality of opportunity and status in the evolution of the GVC division of labor. The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) promoted by China has obtained remarkable achievements in this regard; however, there lacks sound theoretical and empirical evidence as to whether the BRI has driven the GVCs to develop towards a more equitable direction. This paper employs the difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the GVC optimization effect of the BRI. In addition, on the basis of the so-called “five-pronged approach” index, the paper uses the mediating effect model to test the mechanism of influence. The empirical results suggest that the BRI has helped participating countries along the routes to increase their position in GVC division of labor significantly through the mediating mechanism of four out of the “ five-pronged approach”, namely policy coordination, road connectivity, unimpeded trade, and currency convertibility. The strengthening of and closer people-to-people ties has not yet appeared to be an effective mediator, and a possible explanation may be that its influence is indirect and lagging.
2022年05期 v.17 78-97页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 627K] - 李戎;刘力菲;
As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Underastructuralvectorautoregressivemodelthatincorporatesfiscalandmonetary policies, this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks. Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock, the growth rate of broad money supply M2substantially increased, indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion. Based on this empirical finding, this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination. Our analysis shows that monetary policycoordinationwillsignificantlyboosttheeconomicstimuluseffectoffiscalpolicy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect. From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature, and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective. This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.
2022年05期 v.17 98-118页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 517K] - 张晶;陈海山;
Using China's county-level panel data of 2007-2016, this paper verifies the existence of agglomeration shadows from an infrastructure development perspective. With high-speed railway(HSR) launch as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that the launch of HSR lines was followed by a decrease in GDP per capita of counties along the route by 2.6percentage points. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests and the treatment of potential endogeneity problem. Mechanism analysis suggests that such effect is the most significant for counties within a distance of 97 to 195 km to the nearest central city, which is a manifestation of the “agglomeration shadows.” We also uncover that HSR would spur economic growth for counties with favorable endowments. However, HSR also has a significant negative impact on permanent population in counties. When change in permanent population is taken into account, HSR's negative impact on the countywide economy becomes smaller. Shrinking permanent population in counties after HSR launch is a manifestation of such agglomeration shadows. HSR has facilitated the free flow of population. These findings point to the possibility that HSR may have induced regional economic equilibrium amid agglomeration.
2022年05期 v.17 119-136页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 420K] 下载本期数据