- Mao Risheng;
In recent years, a new generation of robots integrated with artificial intelligence has rapidly proliferated across China. Drawing on firm-level tax survey data(2010-2016), city-level data(1999-2019), and micro-data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(2012-2018), this paper constructs an instrumental variable based on city-level robot penetration to investigate the regional employment effects of robot adoption from multiple perspectives. The main findings are as follows:(1) Widespread robot adoption significantly strengthens the market position of incumbent firms, supports overall employment growth within these firms, and facilitates labor reallocation across sectors, with labor tending to shift toward industries characterized by larger average firm size.(2) Evidence at both the aggregated level and the individual level shows that while robot adoption markedly improves firm productivity, it slows the pace of job creation while simultaneously reducing job displacement. As a result, labor mobility at the regional level shows a declining trend.(3) Robot adoption generates significant market spillover effects. It fosters employment growth among incumbent firms but tends to slow the pace of entry of new firms, an important mechanism behind the observed deceleration in regional employment growth.(4) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that robots have a greater impact on job transitions for highly educated and middle-aged workers, increasing their preference for stable employment. No significant differences are found across occupational types or between genders in terms of job mobility impacts.
2025年04期 v.20 2-31页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1068K] - Zhang Chun;Wang Hailu;
While Western modernization is often regarded as a dominant model of linear progress, existing theories frequently overlook the diversity of modernization paths and the underlying commonalities shared across them. The rise of alternative models, exemplified by Chinese path to modernization, underscores the potential for multiple trajectories of modernization and reveals three core elements that define these paths: building consensus on development, generating momentum for growth, and enhancing resilience to challenges. The success of Chinese path to modernization can be attributed to several key factors: the establishment of a national development consensus driven by the leadership of the Communist Party of China; the creation of development momentum through endogenous growth, optimal resource allocation, and a sustained commitment to reform and openingup; and the strengthening of resilience via economic diversification, gradual reforms, and robust risk management strategies. In contrast, African nations present a distinct mix of traditional consensus governance and modern democratic practices, while actively engaging in development-security-governance nexus management and refining early warning and crisis management systems. These countries are exploring their own paths to modernization, informed by their unique socio-political contexts. Despite many differences in national conditions, exchanges of experiences between China and African countries—focused on development consensus, momentum, and resilience—can break the myth that “modernization equals Westernization”. Such exchanges can empower developing nations to pursue their own, independent, and context-specific routes toward modernization.
2025年04期 v.20 32-54页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 550K] - Pan Shan;Guo Kaiming;
Occupational structural transformation is a common pattern during the steady growth of GDP per capita in major economies worldwide. In recent years, there has been a decline in the employment share of goods occupation and an increase in service occupation within the Chinese manufacturing industry, presenting a trend of occupational structural transformation and rapid development of service-oriented manufacturing. It is an important driving force and typical performance of the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry. As a strategic general technology which leads the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence(AI) has become a new fundamental force to accelerate the occupational structural transformation and service-oriented manufacturing development in China. Thus, this paper establishes a dynamic general equilibrium model with AI technology and occupational heterogeneity, showing the endogenous mechanism of occupational structural transformation. We find that when AI technology is biased towards goods occupation, and the elasticity of substitution between goods occupation and service occupation is less than 1, then AI will drive the transformation of occupational structure from goods to service within the manufacturing sector, increase the proportion of service-oriented manufacturing, improve labor productivity of manufacturing relative to service and stabilize the real output share of manufacturing. Promoting deeper integration of different occupations, intensifying R&D in AI technology and reducing labor mobility barriers between occupations can effectively accelerate the occupational structural transformation and industrial structural upgrading. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation method to show the theoretical mechanism by which AI affects occupational structural transformation and industrial structural transformation from a macroeconomic perspective, and put forward policy implications on how to promote the service-oriented manufacturing development and accelerate the construction of modern industrial system through AI innovation.
2025年04期 v.20 56-79页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 1058K] - Zheng Jianghuai;Sun Dongqing;Dai Wei;Shi Lei;
The global clustering of inventive talent shapes innovation capacity and drives economic growth. For China, this process is especially crucial in sustaining its development momentum. This paper draws on data from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistical Database(PATSTAT) to extract global inventive talent mobility information and analyzes the spatial structural evolution of the global inventive talent flow network. The study finds that this network is undergoing a multi-polar transformation, characterized by the rising importance of a few central countries—such as the United States, Germany, and China—and the increasing marginalization of many peripheral countries. In response to this typical phenomenon, the paper constructs an endogenous migration model and conducts empirical testing using the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM). The results reveal several endogenous mechanisms driving global inventive talent flows, including reciprocity, path dependence, convergence effects, transitivity, and cyclic structures, all of which contribute to the network's multi-polar trend. In addition, differences in regional industrial structures significantly influence talent mobility choices and are a decisive factor in the formation of poles within the multi-polar landscape. Based on these findings, it is suggested that efforts be made to foster two-way channels for talent exchange between China and other global innovation hubs, in order to enhance international collaboration and knowledge flow. We should aim to reduce the migration costs and institutional barriers faced by R&D personnel, thereby encouraging greater mobility of high-skilled talent. Furthermore, the government is advised to strategically leverage regional strengths in hightech industries as a lever to capture competitive advantages in emerging technologies and products, ultimately strengthening the country's position in the global innovation landscape.
2025年04期 v.20 80-100页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 768K] - Wu Haijun;Yang Qijing;Yang Zhen;
Urban innovation is essential to strengthening national innovation capacity and technological capabilities, placing its sustained development at the heart of scholarly debate. This study explores the impact of productive-oriented local government debt expansion on urban innovation, leveraging China's “Four Trillion Yuan” stimulus plan in 2008 as a natural experiment and drawing on urban panel data. Through the lens of productive government debt, we find that such expansion significantly boosts urban innovation, driven by three key mechanisms: infrastructure support, government innovation subsidies, and talent agglomeration. However, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect weakens in China's central and western regions, cities with higher administrative status, and those with lower marketization levels, where the impact becomes negligible. Further scrutiny shows that local government financing vehicle(LGFV) bonds and special local government bonds earmarked for infrastructure effectively spur urban innovation, whereas general bonds and LGFV bonds used for “borrowing new to repay old” yield little to no benefit. These findings underscore that local government debt, when channeled toward productive ends, can fuel urban innovation. As the central government works to mitigate implicit debt risks, it must weigh the distinct roles of debt funds—considering regional economic conditions and institutional contexts—and tailor policies to time and place. This study offers theoretical insights and practical guidance for decoding the intricate link between government debt and innovation, enriching both scholarship and policy discourse.
2025年04期 v.20 102-124页 [查看摘要][在线阅读][下载 598K] 下载本期数据